The Mudflats

I got a few interesting emails yesterday I’d like to share.  First, in the morning I had one from a Mudflatter in New Hampshire.  Then another one.  And another.  Then last night I got an email from…..Iowa.  All three said just about the same thing:

Hi, AKM!

I wanted to let you know that I just received an interesting phone call.  It was an automated poll and it asked the following questions:

1. Do you have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

2. Gov. Palin thinks A, B, C, D & E do you agree with Gov. Palin?

3. Do you feel it is important that Gov. Palin is reelected as Gov. of Alaska?

What do you make of that?

Well, I’ll tell you what I make of that.

The Iowa caucuses, the first presidential contest, dramatically winnow the candidate field. There are a maximum of “three tickets” out of Iowa, which means that since 1972 no candidate has won his party’s presidential nomination who did not finish in the top three in a contested Iowa caucus. And in only one election year, 1988 — when Republican George H.W. Bush and Democrat Michael Dukakis both finished third — did an eventual presidential nominee not finish either first or second in Iowa.

New Hampshire carries even more historical clout. From the Granite State primary, there are just “two tickets.” In fact, from 1952 through 1988, no U.S. president was elected who did not first win the New Hampshire primary. The only two exceptions in the last 56 years were Bill Clinton, who in 1992 finished second to Paul Tsongas, and George W. Bush, who in 2000 was beaten by John McCain.

That’s right, you heard it here first. (Unless, of course, you live in Iowa or New Hampshire)  Looks like somebody has amped it up, and is testing the waters already.  But here’s the really interesting part.  Look at that last question.  “Do you feel it’s important that Governor Palin is re-elected as the governor of Alaska?”

Interesting.

Is our governor wondering if a re-election bid is necessary, or whether she should just go for the book deal -> publicity tour -> big money -> start campaigning for 2012 in 2010 option?  Notice that there was no mention of any other elected office.  No Senate.  No House of Representatives.  Just running for re-election as governor.  Murkowski and Young may be sleeping a little more soundly tonight.

Perhaps the governor is interested in running the state for another four years only if it fits her agenda.  If that’s what it takes to win the love of the Lower 48, well…then…alright.  (heaving gigantic sigh)   But, I mean why bother with Alaska unless you have to, right?

Certainly the GOP Senate leadership has done their level best to make Lisa Murkowski bullet proof in 2010.  It’s possible for Palin to topple Don Young, assuming he is not incarcerated by that time, but the House of Representatives probably seems pretty low-brow for Palin compared to the siren song of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

But, however the scenario plays out, the formation of SarahPAC, and now the robo-polls in Iowa and New Hampshire have made it very clear where this train is headed.

So, let’s take this one step further. Imagine if you will,  a presidential election between Barack Obama going for his second term, vs. Sarah Palin.

Several post election polls have shown Sarah Palin as the Presidential nominee of choice for Republicans in 2012, but a new national survey from Public Policy Polling suggests that such a contest would result in the largest popular vote blowout since George McGovern ran against Richard Nixon in 1972.

Obama leads Palin 55-35 in the hypothetical contest. He has an 89-7 advantage among Democrats. Among Republican he trails 66-17. Last year exit polls showed Obama winning only 9% of the Republican vote, so it appears Palin would lose a lot more voters within her party than McCain did.

It’s also worth noting that while only 3% of Democrats are undecided about who they would support in an Obama/Palin contest, 18% of Republicans are, an indication of even more hesitation with some GOP voters about supporting Palin if she ended up as the nominee.

“It’s impossible to say what twists and turns the American political landscape will see between now and 2012,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “What is clear is that four months ago John McCain lost to Barack Obama by seven points
nationally, and at this point in time Sarah Palin trails Obama by a much greater 20 point margin. Obama would easily win more than 400 electoral votes in a contest against Palin at this point in time.”

But wait, there’s more!

“Palin is viewed negatively by 50% of voters in the country with just 39% holding a positive opinion of her. 69% of Republicans have a favorable view of her, while only 11% of Democrats do.”

For the full results, grab your favorite snack food and click HERE.