The Sky is Falling!!! No, wait. It’s Palin’s Approval Index.
The folks at Hays Research have been busy bees. New approval numbers for Sarah Palin came out a couple weeks ago, and I had fun crunching them. And now, there are more. Numbers are OK in isolation, but trends show the real picture. So, while someone looking to spin the numbers in the governor’s favor might point to a respectalbe 59.8% approval rating, that’s not the whole picture.
Let’s look at Palin’s approval index over time. The approval index is measured by taking the “very positive” percentage and subtracting the “very negative” percentage. Rasmussen uses the approval index to measure presidential approval in a daily poll. With the assistance of the Mudflats chart wizard “Anonymous Number Cruncher” we can enjoy the following:
Keep in mind that these numbers reflect Alaskans’ opinion before Palin’s highly controversial choice of Wayne Anthony Ross as Attorney General, and before her no-show at a meeting with Legislators in Juneau to discuss the stimulus money, and before the release of her press release on that matter which Senate President Gary Stevens (R) said was “absolutely false.”
The way things are going, we’re going to need new numbers every two weeks. At the current rate of decline, we can expect the governor’s approval index to hit zero in about 4 and a half months…some time in August. That’s when the very favorable opinions and the very unfavorable opinions will meet, and the polarization of Alaska will be complete.
And just for fun, let’s compare these new Palin numbers with those of Senator Lisa Murkowski:
Approval Rating: (very positive and somewhat positive)
Murkowski 71.6% Palin 59.8%
Approval Index: (very positive minus very negative)
Murkowski 25.2 Palin 13.7
I think the numbers tell us who Alaska’s real golden girl is.
Whoooaaa AKM….I can’t keep up!
Gosh, it looks like I need to go into polling! I’d have job security for at least two more years.
Now if only the rest of the country could see these numbers, she would be toast for sure in 2012.
LOVING these visuals!!!!! Thanks so much for posting it. Hope everything is looking up in your neck of the woods!
Take care!
Huge smiley face here!
You’re on a roll. Why is it when things are looking bad for the Queen it brightens my day? I just don’t think there are enough rightwing nuts to see her through until 2012.
I was heartsickened by Doogan’s despicable behavior with regard to you and the First Amendment, but I am feeling elated by your return to the blogosphere. Your posting of Palin’s Approval Index is like icing on the cake. Lisa is so smart and so kind and so unlike Sarah. May Lisa’s star continue to rise, May Sarah’s burn out and burn all those around her, and May you rise from this experience like the Phoenix; Stronger and Wiser and with Renewed Energy.
You go girl!
In light of these numbers, the question remains: Was Lisa pushed down that slope?
I can’t wait to see how the ‘reel murikins’ will spin these numbers. Or they’ll try to create a distraction by complaining how Obama hasn’t saved the entire economy in the 2 months that he’s been in office.
“…and the polarization of Alaska will be complete.”
Polarizer in Chief
Slope , as in ski slope. Unless Alaska has another name for it aka snowhill, slippery slope…
I went through the Hayes poll with a couple of top Democratic Party people late this morning. Nobody is surprised that Palin’s numbers are going down. The most important thing some see is the difference between Palin’s negatives and Lisa Murkowski’s from this same poll. Palin’s total negatives are 20% above Murkowski’s. That is significant, and that is the gap widening most rapidly.
If Palin attacks Murkowski or starts making statements designed to erode Murkowski’s favorables, we need to point that out to people. Hopefully, the goons at SarahPAC are already creating nasty things to say about Murkowski, that we can then trace back to Meg’s hapless crew.
Maybe a Democrat will declare for the 2010 US Senate race soon. Does anyone have any preferences?
Hmm. Word seems to be spreading through the village. Hays Research is a local or AK based firm it sounds like. Is that right? The charts show March 25 but most polls have a range of a couple of days during which the poll was taken. And a margin of error. And you usually know who commissioned the poll: newspaper, PAC, candidate, etc. Any details on any of this? Interesting info but absent a context it’s hard to measure.
Disgruntled tavern owner? Misguided milk maid? Former running mate? (who seemed yesterday to not recall how much he loved her?) Bald Plummer?
Exorcist? Thick-jawed former Olympic head? WAR monger? Snow machine company? RNC? DNC? NBC? CDC? OK enough.
Anybody know who took the poll; why; when and how it was released?
Oops. Forgot to link. It’s now in the first sentence. Thanks. AKM
Well done on the number crunchery! The visual says so much. No wonder there’s mayhem at the castle lately. If only I could change my shape into that of a potted plant in the royal courtyard for a day!
“Loses a stripe every time she posts”, eh?
Thanks for that tip, you-know-who (rhymes with).
That’s two slam dunks already today, AKM.
Three-pointer coming up?
While I wish the poll would be for more than 400 people, or at least sample 400 vote groups in 3 different areas of Alaska, I find this latest poll VERY INTERESTING.
Now is it just me, or has Palin’s VERY FAVORABLE rating dropped almost 14% from the last poll less than 2 weeks ago? I’m getting that by taking the 40.5% divided into the current 34.9% rating, which shows a 13.8% decrease. Thanks!
AKM: about that chart wizard “Anonymous Number Cruncher” ~ can we get Wizard brand Number Crunch cereal in the Mudflats store? (not O’s, but numbers; also, too, macaroni numbers…..)
need coffee.
Wow…before Mudflatsgate…that ol’ Queen is probably pouting and stomping that foot, huh?
Hmmmm……it seems her numbers are falling in Alaska because the people there are growing sick and tired of her antics and total lack of intellect and leadership. How can this message be spread to all the right wing fanatics (I’m being kind here) in the rest of the country (her “base”)??
Spread the word and keep the message out there!
Awesome visuals….and the message is reassuring! The trend in ‘very positive’ is dropping while the ‘very negative’ stays the same. Is there a change in the ‘somewhats’?
As fun as it is to play with these poll numbers (and it IS fun at times), to be fair, it is hard to make much of a poll in which only about 400 people were polled. I would hope Sarah Palin’s approval is dropping and that a growing percentage of people are seeing through her lack of substance. But the truth is, I just don’t know whether this is the case and would like to see a nicely done poll with larger numbers.
Just read the text again. “….current rate of decline…. in August……the polarization of Alaska will be complete.” Chilling.
So funny!!, popped over to c4p (won’t link), they are spinning like tops to try and make this poll seem like good news for GINO.
Question from a non-Alaskan. Is the Hays Research Poll seen as a reliable and accurate poll historically? Most polls are done using several hundred people so the number 400 doesn’t really bother me. I’m more interested in the track record of the poll itself. I’m happy about these trends!!!!!
I think I’ll ask fivethirtyeight.com if he would like to evaluate Palin’s approval numbers, both nationally and state-wide. also.
I assume Dussendorf’s numbers are scraping the bottom of the pond…
very proud of the stand you have taken…keep it up….
@JakeWSays
Many ‘national’ polls are done with one thousand likely voters. So four hundred people-given the small population of alaska-is not that unusual.
mwThatOne: That made me think of a GINO cereal. It would be like Lucky Charms but the marshmallows would be buses, snow machines and bridges.
I’d call it Palin Gate Crunch. =)
And yet the RepoTaliban seem to still want her.
I am totally bewildered by that.
There are less than 700k people in AK. During the campaign there were bunches of polls everyday. I remember most of them were in the 1 to 2k range of people polled. This in a country of 300 mil. people. Relatively speaking – 400 polled sounds fine to me…….BTW those daily polls during the campaign were usually pretty close.
JakeW Says:
March 30th, 2009 at 2:24 PM
“….. to be fair, it is hard to make much of a poll in which only about 400 people were polled.”
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Reasonable point but “trends” have to be taken into account if not actual numbers. The trend on Palin’s popularity has been consistently going down on successive polls. If numbers were the critical factor, I suspect you would occasionally see an outlier poll that disputed the trend. To my knowledge….this has not happened.
Marnie: Birds of a feather flock together?
I wouldn’t care if these numbers are complete lies. It puts the pressure on her. And she’s quite happy to lie to put the pressure on others. Besides, I doubt they’re far from the truth.
LOL! Keith is doing a bit on McCain’s tepid support of Palin. They are saying this was McCain’s way of saying he made a mistake by picking her. Very funny! Chris Mathews did a bit earlier. They are totally kicking this up. I love it!
I think McCain is kicking himself silly now for having chosen Palin. By the way, who was it exactly that urged him to pick her?
I think secretly he wanted to pick Lieberman. (Not that that ticked would have won either, but it would have made him look a heck of a lot better.)
seattlefan…
I couldn’t get here fast enough. Keith and his guest were great explaining McCain’s lack of endorsing Palin only a few months from putting her a heartbeat away from the Presidency! WOW!
New Poll!!
I am so happy that the trauma with Doogan and all has not affected our brilliant AKM – fun to read, thoughtful and encouraging. Palin and the drama of our bizarre Alaskan politics is easier to stomach because of this blog.
Looks like a good subject for an office ‘betting pool’… being..
What date will will the two lines meet in the Middle at ‘ zero ‘..?
Maybe AKM will donate a prize for the winner… a “Where’s Sarah? ” button.
Maybe even put up a poll on the site…. just a thought. It’s not money… can’t be considered gambling.
It almost seems as if Sarah’s incompetence has hit critical mass, or passed the point of no return. There is such a huge cloud hovering over her, full of swirling vortices of various scandals and lies and misdirections and gaffes…
Oh my goodness. Has she infected me with word saladism?
It is no longer possible, I think, for Sarah to ever explain away the mass of problems that faces her and dogs her heels at the same time. The mountain of accumulated evidence that shows a clear inability to govern. She really can’t decide who are her allies and who are her enemies, who to trust and who to plot against.
I can’t help but think back to hundreds of times that we had to listen to the mantra of ‘executive experience’. Well, it sounds to me like Alaska has had about all the executive experience it can stand! The numbers tell the story.
AKM,
SO GOOD to have you back, and in fine form, as usual! With all that’s going on, I imagine it’s hard to stay silent. It’s truly amazing (though not surprising) that people like Doogan and Palin can’t look beyond their own perspective to see that if they stopped doing unethical, illegal, shortsighted, rude, childish, and/or supremely self-centered things, they wouldn’t draw such attention to themselves from either the MSM or pajama-clad bloggers! NY Governor David Paterson has plunging poll numbers as well, but that’s for mundane political reasons–he made a hash of picking a new senator and has had to cut programs and raise taxes, and no one likes that. He certainly has not acted in such a way as to accumulate breach of ethics charges in the double digits. The point is that if you’re going to act like a spoiled child when you’re SUPPOSED to be a responsible public figure–people are GOING TO NOTICE and COMMENT!
*wipes forehead and steps off soapbox*
So according to the trend’s prediction, Mooseburgers’ approval is geared to tank one year before the next election.
That being the case, what are the odds she’s going to abdicate citing some kind of face-saving nonsense like “toxic atmosphere with media and legislature that will not allow me to best serve Alaska” — nonsense she may try to *engineer* herself?
An abdication would allow her to get out while the getting’s good, hide in obscurity for a couple of years, and reappear as if it never happened, as either a candidate or a fundraiser for 2012.
well, that should certainly answer VidO’s numerous insistances over on Shannyn Moore’s site that Palin’s approval ratings continue to be high.
I still chuckle when I watch this video, “The Vet who did not Vet”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03fcGelz8Hw
If only McCain would have heeded it’s sage advice!
No way will she abdicate. That would damage her political future too much. But I don’t think she will run again for Gov or for Senator. She doesn’t want to have to face that whole accountability think that goes along with holding office. Not with all those pajama clad bloggers shouting from the shadows at her. No, she will write a book and maybe host a TV show and rake in a ton of money and try to position herself for a run at the Presidency. Which will not pan out due to the enormous number of competitors that are actually somewhat successful at what they do…
I think Sarah has an incredible future as a fundraiser. That’s about it.
I have a question for you Mud Puppies….??
I have Google-searched all over the web for anything about the Fox ambush TV Crew this weekend and I see nothing. It must have been Cold (Br rrrrrrr ) crouching down with their face in the snow.
Did they get no footage at all..?
0whole1Says:
March 30th, 2009 at 2:54 PM “An abdication would allow her to get out while the getting’s good, hide in obscurity for a couple of years, and reappear as if it never happened, as either a candidate or a fundraiser for 2012.”
————————————————————
Maybe Cheney will rent her space in his man-sized safe? Or think she could go into the Witness Protection Program. . .and not find her way out? As for acting as “if it never happened”, doesn’t she already do that?
34Blooper Says:
March 30th, 2009 at 2:47 PM
I think McCain is kicking himself silly now for having chosen Palin. By the way, who was it exactly that urged him to pick her?
James Dobson , and it was stronger than “urge”.
Revelation 17:9
And here is the mind which hath wisdom. The seven heads are seven mountains, on which the woman sitteth.
-
Wow. I just saw that and thought I would share. The whole chapter awesome, really, from The Word.
neener neener neener!
Hah! You’re not some vooman in Anchorage, you’re NATE SILVER! Fiendishly clever, AKM, but you can’t fool me.
Number crunchery! Back and better than ever… ((((((AKM))))))
@Rob in Ca Says:
March 30th, 2009 at 2:59 PM
No way will she abdicate. That would damage her political future too much. But I don’t think she will run again for Gov or for Senator. She doesn’t want to have to face that whole accountability think that goes along with holding office. Not with all those pajama clad bloggers shouting from the shadows at her. No, she will write a book and maybe host a TV show and rake in a ton of money and try to position herself for a run at the Presidency. Which will not pan out due to the enormous number of competitors that are actually somewhat successful at what they do…
I think Sarah has an incredible future as a fundraiser. That’s about it.
______________
I agree. The ‘base’ loves her and she could make tons of money for the Repugs. Good luck and good riddance GINO.
Let’s go a bit further and say Sarah for chair of the RNC! She’ll single-handedly divide that party to the brink with her mean girl games.
She’s a poster child for the Peter Principle
“In a Hierarchy Every Employee Tends to Rise to His Level of Incompetence.”
She’s arrived.
I can hear the anvil falling… still… That’s a long way down!
GA Peach a/k/a Lance the Boil aka Crust Scramble Says:
March 30th, 2009 at 3:19 PM
She’s a poster child for the Peter Principle
No doogan !!
I just realized that I’ve managed to use three different internet identities today as I’ve posted comments on Alaska blogs. Didn’t mean to, but hey, take that, DooDoo!!
Anvil ??
http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/4171/anvil1cq2.gif
AKM–I love that you are back and hittin’ ‘em just as hard as before! Being “outed” may have caused some serious turmoil in your life, but not nearly as much as what must be going on behind the scenes with Doogan and GINO, et al. They expected you to back down and you didn’t!
Everybody…join hands across the land(s) and sing along with me to AKM and Helen Reddy! Ready? A one and a two and a three…
I am woman, hear me roar
In numbers too big to ignore
And I know too much to go back an’ pretend
’cause I’ve heard it all before
And I’ve been down there on the floor
No one’s ever gonna keep me down again
CHORUS
Oh yes I am wise
But it’s wisdom born of pain
Yes, I’ve paid the price
But look how much I gained
If I have to, I can do anything
I am strong (strong)
I am invincible (invincible)
I am woman
You can bend but never break me
’cause it only serves to make me
More determined to achieve my final goal
And I come back even stronger
Not a novice any longer
’cause you’ve deepened the conviction in my soul
CHORUS
I am woman watch me grow
See me standing toe to toe
As I spread my lovin’ arms across the land
But I’m still an embryo
With a long long way to go
Until I make my brother understand
Oh yes I am wise
But it’s wisdom born of pain
Yes, I’ve paid the price
But look how much I gained
If I have to I can face anything
I am strong (strong)
I am invincible (invincible)
I am woman
Oh, I am woman
I am invincible
I am strong
FADE
I am woman
I am invincible
I am strong
I am woman
Thank you Sabrina,good one No one should have their voice sut down nor exposed to what I have read are a very mean bunch of thugs that run with the Heaths and Palins JMHO
@anon blogger- love the “handle”!
AKM—YOU GO GIRL!
Nicely done – and thanks for the balance of including Lisa. As I have always thought, she’s a Republican, but she is OUR Repubican – one we can be proud of. Disagree or agree, at least she has shown herself to be hardworking and serious about her responsibilities.
Sabrina—one of my all time favorites…roll the windows down!!
JOINING HANDS WITH SABRINA! WHO WILL TAKE MINE?
Time for ring around the Doogan, I think.
AKM, Thank You, again and again.
Isn’t she amazing? (in the most negative way I can think it)
Sabrina….AWESOME!
I am ROARING!
Geeze…I haven’t thought about that song for eons. (Showing my age a bit).
AKM…..(((((( ROAR ))))))))
BlooperNo Gravatar Says:
March 30th, 2009 at 2:35 PM ~ GINO cereal. It would be like Lucky Charms but the marshmallows would be buses, snow machines and bridges. I’d call it Palin Gate Crunch. =)
=======
ha. How ’bout some toothpicks, “Sarapix” in honor of the latest choices NOT to be approved by AK legislators.
OT. sorry.
Sabrina- right on the money
A bonfire for gino’s vanity.
I am joining hand with Sabrina and the Problem Child – Let Us Roar indeed!AKM, I know it wasn’t your decision to “out” but you are better than ever. I would love to be a fly on the wall at GINO and DooDoo’s house/office! Talk about getting in over your head/intelligence. LOL, I love it!!
RE: who paid for this, parameters of the survey, etc: I googled Hayes Research Palin and found a number of links, and I am posting two. The first one is Hayes and what they said about this survey. Of interest is that they say the relevant questions were paid for by them and no candidate. And, they say the results have a 95% level of confidence — a good level.
http://www.haysresearch.com/OC032509.htm
I also found a link to freerepublic.com where they are discussing and loving only the total positive counts. That is, they are focusing on the “very” positive plus the “somewhat” positive. That is the only way they can get her ratings above 50% at this point. They are totally ignoring the trends, and the negative ratings. Just a bunch of ostrich’s with their head in the sand.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2218211/posts
Not surprisingly, there are a number of other Palin-loving sites with the same information and same erroneous POV.
There are a few other ways to look at the numbers AKM has provided: “Very Positive” has declined about 40% since 8/1/07 while the “Very Negative” has grown by a factor of 21. That is HUGE.
It is also interesting to note that it looks as though the “Very Negative” is leveling off (maybe until the next reading that will probably reflect her recent craziness), but the “Very Positive” is continuing to drop and that is what has lead to the continuing decline in the Approval Index.
Anyway you look at these numbers the picture is not good for Sarah. I sure hope these results — all of them — make it to the MSM soon.
BTW, I spent my career as a market researcher and the solid data are the “very” positive and negative numbers. Those are the most sensitive ratings that pick up changes over time, and so are the only numbers that should be looked at, as AKM has done. Good job, as would be expected.
Sabrina, you’re killing me! What would we do without Michael Steele as chairperson of the RNC? That’s like life without SNL! That’s like hip without the hop! We might lose our cutting edge!
Oh, I’m skipping around my room in sheer glee, like a little spring lamb. God bless you AKM, for bringing such joy to our world!
I sneaked over to C4Gino earlier today (shhh!) and behold: “Palin Still Riding High With 60% Approval Ratings”. I did not leave a comment. Please don’t ruin their happiness. Today, both blog sites celebrate (for different reasons) that wonder of nature, that streaking meteor, that is Haras Nilap.
Bonnie in Texas, love the imagery of the streaking meteor… specially as they tend to burn up before they hit the ground.
AKM you’re BACK better than ever! Give ‘em heck! Also, too. Love your style.
Ladies Night at the tavern !! Gotta love it !!
Can’t get any better than that…With spring in the air..Everything is waking up life is good..Unless your Scarah!! LMAO
Better hurray, SP. If you get too unpopular, Greta won’t want you anymore for the proposed “Palin/Susteren News Hour” to debut on Fox!
I know this is totally off subject, but I just tried to join the Forum and although I managed to get registered I have been unable to do anything else. I have tried the help menu to no avail. I suppose my age must be the problem but I am unable to get started in the forum. Can someone help me?
Excellent. Thanks for crunching and graphing for us!
Excellent! Thank you for crunching and graphing for us!
I’ve been watching this off and on today.
Sun going down on Redoubt
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/Redoubt_-_Hut.php
Love, love these poll numbers! Wouldn’t it be great if GINO hit her own ‘ground zero’ on August 29? Kismet or karma? Both would suck for Scarah. Not that she would know what either one of these words even mean also.
JakeWNo Gravatar Says: March 30th, 2009 at 2:24 PM But the truth is, I just don’t know whether this is the case and would like to see a nicely done poll with larger numbers.
Actually, it’s pretty significant. Remember, AK only has a population of around 700,000. 400 people is 5.71%.
In a larger population, say, Colorado with a population of 4,939,456 (still pretty sparse), 5.71% would be 282,042 people. Are those numbers large enough?
i’ve just read every post..we are kicking our heels up and it’s a Monday!!! Only at the Flats. Hey AKM, why don’t you open a political news tavern where we could all meet and clink our glasses face to face? Mudpuppies could make pilgrimages to the Mudflats Tavern!!!!
oh how very interesting. cool. thank you AKM so glad you are still here to help sort all this crap out
Sabrina, AKM…ladies nite at the pub, Here….have a round on me. I going to ask the grandkid to punch up “I am Woman” on her Itunes for me. Doing the happy dance….she’s back (((((((((AKM))))))))))) and as good as ever!
I keep reading that Palin is not going to run again for Governor because she wants to get elected to the national political scene. Well, it’s obvious she’s not going to beat Murkowski for Senator so what does she have in mind?
Here is what Romney is up to.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/R/ROMNEY?SITE=AP&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
AKM — great post! I think Rob is right that she will go the public speaking/fund raising route in some manner.
Madmatriarch Re: the forum. You should have had a welcome email almost immediately giving you the link to activate your account. Click on it and you are in the forum. Maybe there was a problem with the email address you used.
Even The Christian Science Monitor has an article about her JV staff
http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2009/03/30/poor-sarah-palin-and-her-junior-varsity-staff/#comment-108562
did i hear beer?
@ lance the boil–Wow! Thanks for Mt Redoubt link! Awesome.
@Rob in CA–I know. Steele is too cool for words (love those striped zoot suits he wears with shoulder pads 5 miles wide!) and I just adored his Cheney-esque “so” reply recently when he equated himself to Obama because he’s the RNC chair.
Hi, Everyone!
I like these numbers. They look good and MSM is using about the same figures.
John McCain is not only putting distance between himself and Sarah, and from what I have been able to glean, he can not support her. His daughter Megan, is looking like she might like to venture into politics. She could possibly pull this off, and McCain will do everything he can to help her. Sarah does not have a chance.
OT
Madmatriarch – once you get *in* the forum, look to the left and click on one of those links – it’ll take you to somebody’s post… then you can kinda look around from there. (I’m still learning it myself… will cross fingers on my *other* hand for you – haha)
Nan
NMJ Says:
Actually, it’s pretty significant. Remember, AK only has a population of around 700,000. 400 people is 5.71%.
——————————————————-
Yup.
Make your own Breakfast Ceral box…design it and print! I’m working on mine already!
www mrbreakfast com/box1.asp
REAL Cereal [named a'la GINO]…
High School Musical Cereal…required eating for those high school friends hired by GINO
Wackies, I think her whole administration been eating too much of this one
Crazy Cow…hey Meg!
Team Flakes…we know maeT haraS eats these…
mwThatOne Said: “ha. How ’bout some toothpicks, “Sarapix” in honor of the latest choices NOT to be approved by AK legislators.”
That would be good fuel for a mud puppy in the morning. And coming soon: Palin Gate Crunch with Flip Flop Berries.
When you pour them into the bowl they are red, but add milk and they ‘magically’ turn blue!
Perfect for when you feel like being a democrat (when it suits your purposes) =)
The fall of GINO is a given, becoming common knowledge with the mainstream media, let along all PJ bloggers. I wonder if she has the capacity to finnish out her term let alone run for another office. I think job security for GINO is on a week by week time line, before one of many impeachable conditions starts getting signatures.
Lisa would tear her populous magical thinking world apart. Lisa has a great deal of power behind her, she come from an Alaskan banking family with connections that GINO will never be able to access.
Don Young vers Gino? That would be interesting, maybe they could just have a shoot out and save us the drama.
Oh so not long ago , Sarah was the Cinderella of the GOP.
Then the ravages of truth and justice paid her a visit………..
http://www.gunaxin.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/twisted-cinderella.jpg
@ austintx–Romney is the one who scares the crap out of me for 2012. Scarah, no way–she’s Little League compared to him. He’s the one behind all the opposition opinion polls, getting himself poised and ready to strike. And he’s got the bucks to back it all up.
I find this to be EXACTLY the kind of activist work that is so necessary. This is fact based argument at its very best. Congrats for rolling up your sleeves and getting into translating the polls… it isn’t as easy as it might appear to crunch data, and clear and understandable charts are an art.
There is no reason why a well organized grass roots organization can’t run it’s own polls. I mean, if you approach your sample in a scientific and unbiased manner, and you know how to crunch and translate the data in to charts, that’s the hardest part. Aside from that, how hard can it be for 10 volunteers to make 400 phone calls?
oops – that WAS NOT the cinderella pic I captured. Sorry.
Sabrina – Yeah – Romney spent 40 mil. of his own money in the primary.
Owhole 1
An abdication would allow her to get out while the getting’s good, hide in obscurity for a couple of years, and reappear as if it never happened, as either a candidate or a fundraiser for 2012.
LOLOL I just had to respond to this….this is Bible Spice Bad SArah we are talking about here! HIde? NEVER. : ) Obscurity? NO WAY, she doesn’t know the meaning of the word, literally. EVEN if she or a badvisor of hers was intelligent enough to think of this plan and pull it off (never) BS would be out of the spotlight for a total of 24-48 hours at the most before she’d be going to “guaranteed favorable” interviews, taking photos, and blabbing to anyone in the vicinity ’bout how wrong she was done. She’d be flying first class from Prayer Conference to Tent Revival dragging Piper with her – with no criticism! In fact, I see her turning into a sort of Preacher-ette most likely…she’d love it. She could say whatever she wanted to the true believers and she could take all the money in the collection plates home with no accountability whatsoever! I can see her now at the bully pulpit, decked from head to toe in Arctic Cat as she witnesses the Lawd!!
Sarah Palin is a religious and political extremist and she’s not trying to hide this anymore. The majority of people are moderate and this will sink Sarah in the middle and end.
HelenNo Gravatar Says:
In fact, I see her turning into a sort of Preacher-ette most likely…she’d love it.
——
She could wear her Naughty Monkeys and become the next Tammy Faye Baker.
They kinda look alike in that last picture on the left – maybe it’s the red jacket!
http://www.tammyfaye.com/tfpix.htm
Some posters think Romney will be the republican front-runner. Very unlikely, because the Evangelical Base think Mormons are followers of a cult. As a result they’ll stay home on election day – that’s why Sarah was chosen as McCains running mate.
From a new poll on KOS:
We are now:
half asleep in frog’s pajamas 5%
four and half months away from complete polarization in Alaska 5%
living in the land of Youcan’tmakethisstuffup 43%
joyfully out of the doo-doo and back into the muck 3%
all of the above 41%
As much as I would like to believe these poll numbers (being someone who has thought little of Palin since I first met her and as one of the earliest to come out nationally against GINO- search the May 26, 2008 Washington Times letter to the editor from JakeW on an OPED piece), 400 out of 700000 is NOT 5.71%. It’s .0571%, making the Colorado analogy quoted above as being based on a poll of 2820 people and not 282000.
When you get down to numbers like 400, every nuance of a question figures heavily into the results and whether more intelligent people who choose to not waste their time answering a poll elect to pick up the phone or not can heavily skew such small numbers as to make them almost meaningless. Observer bias also can affect small numbers much easier. If I had to guess, I would guess the Hays polls skews Palin’s popularity incorrectly higher than it actually is, but again I think a larger poll would be more meaningful.
There’s a good read on Politico..Pity party put on by Van-suckup and Husband
I am SO loving all the great posts today! And thanks for the help with the numbers stuff, commenters. I’m nearly hopeless somedays (like today) without some help…so thanks. (((AKM)))
My only question about the Hays Research methodology is the “working telephone” qualifier. Typically that is a land line- anyone know if this was the case? If so, it may eliminate villages/remote areas, if all they have are cell phones. And younger citizens- my two daughters (30 and 32) only have cell phones, no land lines.
I’d be curious to find out-
Heck with the details. I like lookin’ at the results! Thanks for the cheer-up, AKM.
Live Report: Riki Ott on public radio right now (on Counterspin) speaking about Exxon Valdez oil spill.
Riki: “Working toward double-hulled tankers by 2012.” Takes awhile, eh?
Riki: “I was shocked how the big oil companies were able to dominate the news media. It has inspired me to write two books.”
And much more from another Alaskan award-winning (driven for truth and justice) citizen Muckraker.
Follow Riki’s work, she says, at:
http://ultimatecivics.com
No matter what path Palin chooses, she will lose. Snowflake will not be able to remain sequestered away from media interviews, talk shows, etc. should she run for higher office, as she was able to do during the VP spectacle. She will be right out there with the Romneys, Jindals, whomever — and regardless of the oblivious hopes of her fanatical ‘base’, as soon as Palin opens her mouth, she will be doomed. Can you just hear her debating them or any other candidates??!
Whether you are for her or agin her, Palin’s inability to speak in clear, coherent sentences will doom her forever.
The Breakfast Cereal box is a giggle- I won’t waste printer ink on my haraS creation, but I wll do some for later folks I’m fonder of.
Here’s the URL for the second tackiest haraS campaign photo:
http://www.ctv.ca/gallery/html/palin_fashion_20081023/photo_7.html
Shannyn Moore has a new story on the Huffpo about the oil tanks.
There are not a lot of comments yet. Everybody go there and ‘talk it up’… and make some subtle comments to the website here so they see the doogan stories as well. I threw one on there already.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shannyn-moore/palin-chevron-spill-disas_b_181010.html
link back to this website… and be creative..? Your favorite thing you like about GINO?
AKM, I’m so happy that nothing can keep you down. By nothing I mean Mike Doogan! Haha. His writing is boring and pretentious, what a nothing, what a no mind! His writing tries so hard, at least that’s the way it comes across, and, truly, it IS very boring. Your writing is witty, thoughtful, thought-provoking, and always hits me with a (gentle) one-two punch to the brain unlike what many other writers can achieve. Thank you for your blog. Long may you run.
I caught part of Shannyn’s Doogan comments on CBC, but unfortunately it isn’t podcasted. The CBC hosts are very familiar voices and it sounded amazing to hear them discuss Mudflats. They were’s up to speed on the free speech issue.
Eatwildfish: why do you call GINO Snowflake? How did this come about?
KateinCanada: I always found that smirk on the SS guy’s face so telling and amusing. It was scary to be aware of the vests under the clothes on the guys for Obama, but my gratitude toward them was, also, undying.
palin’s polls will fall through the ground when her base see’s she’s gone scientology I think this looney can be brain washed into anything. Christian base isn’t going to like that.
Eatwildfish: why do you call GINO Snowflake? How did this come about?
Ver-y suspicious!
You called her “snowflake” – are you familiar with Project Monarch?
Anyway, women as stupid as her, usually drugged, were used by the CIA during the Cold War – (I think Cheney’s using her but that’s just me)
I could be exaggerating shit.
Again, eatwildfish:
Why did you call Sarah Palin “snowflake”?
JakeWNo Gravatar Says: March 30th, 2009 at 6:03 PM
Oops.
Totally OT, and I haven’t read any of the comments yet, but The Mudflats outing news has just gone international!!! I’m listening to As It Happens, a CBC radio program that our local public radio station carries, and the host is interviewing Shannyn Moore!! We ALL ROCK!
@honestyinGov Says:
best thing and going good, STAND BY ME, and we will
121 KateinCanada:
I believe it was RipleyinCT that found the link and posted it earlier!! Here it is. Scroll along to the 20:00 mark to listen.
http://www.cbc.ca/mrl3/8752/asithappens/20090330-aih-1.wmv
Sorry to change the subject, but GINO appointed, instead of Beth Kertulla (choice of the Dems), for a Democratic Senate seat, but some Republican man who 2 weeks ago became a Democrat? I’M NOT BUYIN IT SARAH GRIFTER
AKM,
Nice work, thanks for the graphs and analysis!
I soon hope to see Sarah Palin’s expectations of higher office significantly reduced…from my house.
Sorry …shilo442.. scratching my head…??
I don’t understand the message…. maybe I missed something.
Is that in reference to the Huffpo story..?
——————-
shilo442No Gravatar Says:
March 30th, 2009 at 8:26 PM
@honestyinGov Says:
best thing and going good, STAND BY ME, and we will
Yay! Let us hope that the trend of falling approval for Palin continues!
AKM – you do what you can. Take time off if need be. Take a well deserved break, ok?
I know in my heart and my soul that the corner tavern in Alaska will not only survive, but THRIVE for exposing TRUTH about GRIFTER SARAH.
More on Grifter Sarah coming soon>>>
JakeW: You hit the nail on the head. Between the small sample size, way the sample was selected, and leading questions in the calls I received, my perception is that the Hays poll is skewed in GINOs favor. I’d like to see a larger sample that includes cell phones and that presents the exact text of the questions asked with the results.
Sooooo glad to see you moving forward and not letting anyone stop you! I am also happy Palins numbers dropping! I am not surprised at all but she would blame the media and bloggers!
WHAT IS UP WITH THOSE SCIENTOLOGISTS?
They are NOT TO BE TRUSTED BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION
The worst cult imaginable – Scientology
AKM – you do what you can. Take time off if need be. Take a well deserved break, ok?
I know in my heart and my soul that the corner tavern in Alaska will not only survive, but THRIVE for exposing TRUTH about GRIFTER SARAH.
More on Grifter Sarah coming soon>>>
Hey what’s up?
Hopefully not Scientology, how boring is that?
OK here goes:: Sarah
More on Grifter Sarah coming soon>>>
Sarah Palin
you’re a douche
Back to you being a grifter
Sarah Palin
Obvious to all who have known you
Sarah Palin
We hate you
Sarah’s favorable index is looking like one of those failed banks on Wall St. Perhaps she shouldn’t have said no, to education stimulus funds.
Alaska Democratic Party Chair Patti Higgins today issued the following statement about Gov. Sarah Palin’s appointment of Tim Grussendorf to represent Juneau in Senate Seat B
See AK Dems Site for details…
http://progressivealaska.blogspot.com/
Doo Doo Doogan
Is making me gag
Doo Doo Doogan
Has a new poo flag!
Thank you AKM for keeping us in the loop, New names for sarah ALASKAN ICE WHINE , or NAUGHTY MONKEY MERLOT. Great to see her number down. I think she hides out in Anchorage and Wasilla so she doesn’t have to show how stupid she is , not being on the job, just sending out sound bites and showing up for photo ops.
Also, the Hayes poll doesn’t ask people if they will VOTE for Palin, only if they “approve” of her. I wonder what the polling would be for “Would you vote for Palin again?” I wonder how much of that 59% very favorable/favorable would erode? I suppose the 35% that still have a very favorable impression of Palin would be voting for again, but other than that, anything is possible. Does Dittman have a “would you vote for Palin again” poll?
So seriously, Martha UYS, could a person get some of those flags before use so that can be preserved for posterity’s sake?
oops, so that they can be preserved…
The Hayes poll also disqualifies those who have not voted in (I think) 2 out of the last 3 elections or some such ? That is another way that the younger crowd gets undercounted,along with no land lines.My money is that the younger crowd sees more negatives in her than the older crowd,and would be more willing to say so.