Palin Polling Prognostication.
30 07 2009Things are buzzing here at Mudflats Central this morning. Something’s come out of the Number Crunchery Department! They’re usually pretty quiet over there. We see a light on late at night down the hall, and we hear all kinds of paper shuffling and clacking keyboards and adding machine tape, but we’re never quite sure what’s going on.
Then every once in a while the door bursts open, making everyone jump, and a rather disheveled looking number cruncher stands in the door frame looking triumphant, clutching a little piece of paper. There’s usually lots of cheering when this happens because the number crunchers, though often unsung, generally come up with some pretty good stuff.
And today, the whole staff (me) is murmuring and wondering… Why? Because soon, the newest numbers will be out from Hays Research, and they will ask the question we’ve all been waiting for. How popular is Sarah Palin now?
Well, the Number Crunchery Department has been asking this question too, only they’ve come up with their own method of answering the question. Utilizing all of the previous polls from Hays Research, and adding a trend line, when, they wondered, would Palin’s approval line and disapproval line actually cross?
The answer: about a week after her resignation. Which would be about now. Hays numbers come out soon. Stay tuned to see if the prediction comes true.
There’s even a fun bonus chart for you chart-o-philes:
[h/t to Dr. Chill]
July 30th, 2009 at 4:31 PM
86. So, does this mean Palin ain’t coming to my husbands birthday party to pop out of the cake? Damm. She said she’d come, now we have to put it through Stapletongue? I guess her word is not her bond. Whaaaaaa.
July 30th, 2009 at 4:32 PM
Wait, is she still Governor?……”all invitations bearing the Governor’s name”. Is it proper etiquette to refer to ex-governors still as “governor”, like Presidents?
July 30th, 2009 at 4:35 PM
sdragon # 60
Food for thought. I was just out skipping around the net. Someone was wondering where sp has been hiding, even her cult hasn’t heard from her. A reply said not to worry, she’s holed up with her team of lawyers getting ready to file multiple lawsuits, the first one being filed Monday. Truth? Wishful thinking? Lie? Rumor? Don’t know.
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It could make sens. I posted on the open thread this link, which is an article by the guy who set up her trust fund, mainly posturing. I’m just speculating but, if he is writing this today, that may mean that Van flea and Daniels may not have reached an agreement. I’m sure van flean and the trust fund guy are communicating. Let’s hope that Daniels does not cave in.
http://www.fayettedailynews.com/article.php?id_news=4001
July 30th, 2009 at 4:39 PM
Thanks Dr Chill for the numbers and the good laugh at # 69
July 30th, 2009 at 4:58 PM
Awww. Imagine my disappointment that the Quitter will not be visiting my home town! And what a surprise to learn that her word is u nreliable. Whooda thunk it? So I’ll put away the tar and feathers for another day. Sigh.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:05 PM
Coupla things:
I wonder if whichever SImi Valley Republican lady that booked XGINO is feeling a little like whoever booked Colbert for the press dinner with W. Simi Valley is very conservative, but also, IMO, very decorous and, on average, quite literate. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes.
About the $4M (or whatever) advance. The thing about advances is, they are basically loans against whatever payment your contract provides for. If, for instance, XGINO never actually produces a book, the publisher could ask for the money back. (I say “could” in this case because the publisher is ultimately Rupert (yes?), and it might just become a gift).
Similarly, XGINO’s contract probably provides for some payment on delivery of the manuscript, and then a royalty per copy sold. The first $4M of that will go to pay back the advance.
I’d wait a bit on that place in the Hamptons.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:09 PM
@69 Dr Chill — You have to allow for relativistic effects; otherwise you end up with the 1979 extrapolation that by 2000 everyone in the Bay Area would be a lawyer. That proved clearly false — I personally know at least a dozen non-lawyers.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:19 PM
@100 rebekkah — As I understand it, if you are a former government official, the correct form of address is to use your highest former title. There is supposed to be an exception for former POTUS’s and VPOTUS’s — use the next highest title, because there is only one POTUS or VPOTUS at a time — but this is widely ignored.
However, that means that it is okay to refer to her as Governor Palin (although I don’t plan to). You’d have to consult a more knowledgeable etiquette maven to learn if the use of the term “the Governor” is acceptable, since there is a possibility of confusion with the current Governor.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:52 PM
Glen Beck is a Mormon. So, maybe he will convert Palin to Mormonism. I live in Utah and they love him here. YUK!!! Thus, if she did run in 2012 and Romney also runs—she will lose some of the love from Fox. Beck will switch his support over to Romney. Ouch!
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nope, he’s a moron.
July 30th, 2009 at 5:55 PM
AKM and Dr. Chill….Thanks for the visual numerical evidence of a falling star. I love charts and am especially fond of pie charts. Numbers do not lie and charts just shout those numbers out! Thanks! (looking foward to some sort of a pie chart!
)
July 30th, 2009 at 5:55 PM
Has she ever been involved in anything that did not have a scheduling mishap?
July 30th, 2009 at 6:43 PM
lynnrockets,
How do they expect anyone to continue to extend invitations if they continue to play this game. Many pundits have made reference to her handlers doing this making it every more unprofessional and tanks the credibility. Oh Well!!!!
July 30th, 2009 at 6:52 PM
101 tamara,
http://www.fayettedailynews.com/article.php?id_news=4001
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Evans writing what he did is his attempt to further expand his explainion how he set up the AFT. Not his first attempt to explain
What jumped at me at the launch of the fund and even now, is all the Funds he refers to as using to reference and create Palin’s are all federal funds. I looked at some info on Young setting his up, they have to be approved by the Senate I believe. There is not one reference to a State fund held by a Governor in the creation of the AFT.
He references throughout his explanation of the fund as being for the Republication Vice Presidential candidate when in fact, as at the time of launch of this fund, she was the Governor of Alaska. The election was long over and it’s like Evans forgot – McCain/Palin lost. Sounds like the fund was in the creation mode for months and quite possibly when they were campaigning but he didn’t switch modes.
In an earlier writing of his, he mentioned it being legal in Alaska but I don’t think he took into account the laws of the State of Alaska re personal monetary gains, gifts, etc. To me, actually very basic. Not rocket science.
Therefore, all the funds that he is declaring as illegal are I would think legal as they’re federal and approved to operate. The fund document created for Palin I believe is the illegal one. He seems to have jumped the ball — the fund was launched while she was still Governor, not as she was campaigning nationally and not after she aborted her position for which she asked the citizens of the State of Alaska for their votes. Actually, I don’t think it would have been approved as a VP Candidate. After she quit – it’s a fund by a private citizen. Sounds more to me that Evans is trying to dig himself out.
The fact that Evans writes for the site his post is on and they ask for email address and name, I will not post there.
Jhop or someone else may be able to correct what I have said if I am wrong.
July 31st, 2009 at 4:31 AM
nswfm CA Says:
July 30th, 2009 at 5:52 PM
Glen Beck is a Mormon. So, maybe he will convert Palin to Mormonism. I live in Utah and they love him here. YUK!!! Thus, if she did run in 2012 and Romney also runs—she will lose some of the love from Fox. Beck will switch his support over to Romney. Ouch!
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nope, he’s a moron.
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Well, he is that too. A moron Mormon.
July 31st, 2009 at 4:35 AM
Regarding the title of “Governor”…..
What is proper if someone doesn’t even finish one term and they just quit? Is it still proper to say, Governor Palin? How does one refer to those who have been forced out of office mid-term?
Just wondering.
July 31st, 2009 at 9:53 AM
Another muckraker reader. I live in Utah and Sarah Palin is a joke!
Romney or Huntsman on a Prez ticket would make sense.