August Surprise – Palin Backed Joe Miller Poised to Overthrow Murkowski Dynasty in Alaska.
~Senator Lisa Murkowski Campaigning for Senator Ted Stevens in 2008
In 2006, a relatively unknown small town mayor in Alaska toppled the incumbent Republican governor in the primary. Garnering more than 50% of the vote in a three-way race, and leaving the incumbent in the dust with 19%, the political career of Sarah Palin was born. The governor that was sent packing was Frank Murkowski. He’d been Alaska’s Junior Senator under Ted Stevens for decades, and decided to come home and try his hand at the governorship. It didn’t work out very well. His mismanagement, pandering to the oil companies, corrupt administration, and subsequent devastating defeat would have seemed to end the Murkowski reign in Alaska – except for one little thing. Frank Murkowski had appointed his daughter, former state lawmaker Lisa Murkowski to fill the empty senate seat.
Less corrupt, less conservative, and harder-working than dear ol’ dad, Lisa Murkowski appealed to the large chunk of centrist Republicans, centrist Democrats, and Independents which make up the majority of Alaska voters. Her approval ratings soared into the high 70s, and there they stayed. The Murkowski dynasty appeared poised to last another lifetime.
One of the casualties, however, of Lisa’s installment to her father’s senate seat was Sarah Palin. She’d been interviewed for the job, along with a handful of others, and had ultimately been rejected by Frank Murkowski, in favor of family ties. Palin was not pleased. Alaskans didn’t much like the royal appointment either. A ballot measure put to voters and passed into law stripped sitting senators of the ability to make appointments to fill their own seats. It would now be left to a vote of the people via special election. Ironically, that very ballot also contained Lisa Murkowski’s first legitimate run for the senate on her own merits. She won.
Fast forward to 2008. After Palin’s failed VP run, rumors swirled that Sarah would exact revenge and make a run for Murkowski’s senate seat when she came up for re-election in 2010. The Republican Party began to grumble. To ease fears, Sarah made nice and wrote her very first check from SarahPAC to Lisa Murkowski in the amount of $5000. But the uneasy truce was not to last.
Former Palin campaign supporter and family friend, attorney Joe Miller from Fairbanks decided he was going to be the David to take a shot at the Goliath of the Murkowski family. First came a formal endorsement from Todd Palin. Then came the formal endorsement from Sarah herself. Miller got a little bump in the polls, but not much. Then came the endorsement of the Tea Party Express, and the financial floodgates opened. In a market where $10 will buy you a radio ad, and the entire state has only 600,000 people, the torrent of money that the Tea Party brought created an instant professional campaign the likes of which Alaskan candidates seldom have. Slick ads, four-color mailers, a revamped website, campaign signs everywhere – Miller’s numbers started to grow, but still lagged by well into double digits.
But in the last two weeks, things began to change. Just when it looked like the Palin endorsement wasn’t working as well as expected, the final media blitz hit. Every available moment of air time on TV and radio was overtaken by Miller ads – Murkowski is a liberal! Murkowski is part of a political dynasty. She’s entitled. She says one thing and does another. She’s sold out for political power in D.C. She’s a liberal, and also by the way, she’s a liberal.
The Murkowski campaign, believing in their own numbers, her popularity with constituents, and in the reasonable nature of most Alaskans, didn’t seem to think that catastrophe was nipping at their heels.
In the final 48 hours, a popular local radio host interviewed Miller and framed Murkowski as a “rabid abortionist.” This in itself would have riled up the Christian conservative base, but on top of that there was an added bit of ballot bait this time around. Ballot Measure 2 stated that doctors of any girl 17 years of age or younger needed to notify her parents if she sought to have an abortion, or face felony charges. Like red meat to the wolves, Ballot Measure 2 brought out the Right to Life crowd in force. Churches devoted entire services on the Sunday before primary day to talking about why congregants should support Measure 2. Signs promoting “Alaskans for Parental Notification” showed up in their lobbies.
The beneficiaries of the voters who came out to support Measure 2 were Miller, Sean Parnell and Mead Treadwell. Parnell was Palin’s Lt. Governor who assumed the seat after she resigned. Treadwell, the Lt. Governor nominee was one of the top donors to Yes on 2, with credit on the website. All three men appear to have won their respective slots on the party ticket – Parnell with the Republican gubernatorial nomination, Treadwell as the GOP’s Lt. Governor candidate, and Miller officially once the absentee ballots are counted. As a measure of the issue’s ability to bring out the vote, there were 10,000 votes cast just for the ballot measure alone, with no senate candidate even selected. The ones who chose a senatorial candidate while they were there anyway, presumably also numbered in the thousands.
Another mitigating factor were progressives who, trying to play political chess and overthrow Murkowski, crossed over and voted for Miller. The logic was that Miller, a far right fringe candidate, would be far easier for the Democratic candidate to beat in a head to head race with all Alaskans in the voting mix. And this may come to pass.
Scott McAdams, little known to Alaskans outside the southeast pan-handle, is a popular small town mayor. He runs the city of Sitka and has balanced budgets, focused on education, served on the school board, and has even figured out how to sell water to India. He was a deckhand on a commercial fishing boat all over the state, and is all the kinds of things that Sarah Palin said she was, before the media began to shine a flashlight in all the dark corners. He’s a “real Alaskan” in the style of the politicians of old, before oil was discovered and turned a libertarian blue state reddish.
I say redd-ish because despite the meme that Alaska is ruby red, and that it’s full of a bunch of Palin-style conservatives, Alaska is actually very… plum-colored. Democrats have an equal number in the state senate, and in November stand a good chance of getting a decisive majority in both the senate and the house. It has one Democratic Senator and one Republican Senator. Before Frank Murkowski and Sarah Palin, Alaska had a two-term Democratic governor. The Anchorage Assembly has a progressive majority. It’s a complicated state.
McAdams who unlike Miller, is a fiscally conservative moderate Democrat, has executive experience, was born and raised in Alaska, and has worked with his hands in the fishing industry, suddenly finds himself with an incredible opportunity. One could even say that attorney and Yale Law grad Joe Miller who was born and raised “Outside” is kind of “elite,” while McAdams is all about Alaska, and “real people.”
And despite what they say, Alaskans do like their power in D.C. and the perks it brings home. After Palin rejected a portion of federal stimulus money for her state, there were demonstrations in the streets, and the Republican legislature eventually overturned her decision, bringing in much needed funds to assist Alaskans in rural areas to make their homes energy efficient for the winter, fix crumbling infrastructure, and a host of other things. Electing a minority party freshman on the outer fringes of conservative philosophy and who is doomed to be powerless might not sound too appealing to Alaskans who are used to the likes of Ted Stevens, The Murkowski Dynasty, and Don Young who for decades made a career by bringing home the congressional bacon.
And don’t underestimate the damage that Miller has done to the Republican Party and to good will of those who actually really liked Lisa Murkowski recognizing that she actually did work hard to benefit the state, and that she wasn’t… crazy. There will be many Republicans who will not be able to bring themselves to vote for Miller, and who will investigate and ultimately hop to the other side of the aisle to vote for McAdams. As we’ve just witnessed, all it takes is money to get the message out and bring voters to the polls. Our newest Republican candidate for Senate made that very clear.
All in all this makes for some fascinating political theater up here in the Last Frontier, and a golden opportunity for Democrats to reclaim Alaska’s past and usher in a new era of moderate, hard-working sensible and centrist Democrats to guide the state to a profitable, post-oil future. Nationally, that’s one more coveted chair in the Club of 100 from a very unlikely place.
In the words of a Murkowski campaign worker last night at election central in downtown Anchorage at the prospect of Senator Joe Miller, “The world as we know it is coming apart at the seams, and frankly I’m terrified.”
This article is cross-posted at The Huffington Post Buzz it up!
I was feeling fairly glum about Miller’s election until reading this. It would be sweet to see a Democrat triumph in the Senatorial election and it might even such up Mama Malaprop for a few minutes.
I wish I could believe that Alaska is “plum-colored”, but if you look at the total number of voters who voted in the Republican primary versus the Democratic primary, it looks pretty red. I sincerely hope Scott McAdams has a chance in the general.
The primary isn’t a good indicator of how red the state is because a lot of R’s were on a mission from their churches to vote against measure 2. Also R’s had more of reason to vote between their candidates, because they had some nutters on their ticket, while Democrats didn’t have to worry about any insane people winning the nomination on theirs.
To hear CNN- you would think that Palin was a force of something of sorts. I find all of this mess interesting. I am hoping that this translates to one thing- Democrats are going to better off than people think!
I love the Dems analogy of not being ready to let the “keys go to the Repub”s…
But come on Dems- your analogy should be. “They had the keys for 8 years. Where is the money? Where are their bright solutions? And if they were that darn great, “Why are we in the mess that we are in today???” I am still hoping for change. Anyone – anyone.
Very interesting analysis, the November will certainly be fun to watch. Like you, I really hope that ultimately far right candidates will end up helping the dems. One can only dread the idea of people such us Miller, Angle, Paul, etc. in the Senate. Hopefully such a dreadful thought will motivate the dems and moderates to vote…
*the November election
I was told this morning that someone (remains nameless) voted for Miller because he thought Murkowski would win by a landslide. He was sending a message to Murkowski not to get to comfortable and not to take her position for granted. He’s now nervous and having voter remorse.
Remember only 27.5% of the registered voters did this. And it’s still to be determined what percent chose Miller over Murkowski, but only has to be a lilttle more than half, say 14%. That’s what’s so pitiful.
Scott will make a great Senator.
You know, I think it’s past time we throw away the “Lisa was picked instead of Sarah Palin because of family ties” meme. Given what the lower 48 has seen of Sarah since she was picked by McCain it is safe to say that Frank Murkowski didn’t lack for reasons to not pick Sarah.
I agree! There’s a good chance Frank actually looked at $P’s record & really thought Lisa was a better choice. Lisa was a moderate R before this past year, $P has a record of flakey and vindictiveness.
AKM, thanks for the review and evaluation. I hope that you are right about this being a “golden opportunity” for Democrats in AK. I hope the money resources will be there to make it happen.
Hope there is someone able to support the Mayor of Sitka with the same resources as the Koch brothers.
I hope that the November election will bring a surprise upset for Miller (if he does prevail), just as he upset Murkowski in August. Let’s hope that if Murkowski does not run as an independent that she throws her support to Miller’s opponent. As with many in the moderate GOP camp, Palin and the Tea Party have sold them down the river–it’s now pay back time.
She can’t run as an Independent, only a Libertarian. She didn’t file on time to be an Indy.
I read Phil’s earlier post comparing the counting to that of 2008 when it took a week or so for Begich to come out ahead. Hoping it’s the same?
Lisa, if the absentee ballots don’t come in for her, should endorse Scott McAdams, and switch parties. We’ll welcome her.
Wouldn’t that be wonderful! But I’m thinking that’s just too much to ask or dream for…
Why would that be too much to ask? It happened in the NY-23 special election, where the Republican just couldn’t endorse the whackjob teabagger. This might be Lisa’s last chance to redeem herself and put the needs of Alaskans first.
Don’t hold your breath.
Just as republicans can sometimes be their own worst enemy, so too is it true of the dems. The crossover votes for Miller (that likely carried his win) are only going to end up ensuring that Miller is our next senator. How is that good for us? It’s not. There is absolutely no chance in hell imo that McAdams can win. No chance. I’m pretty upset and how this is going down…just overall poor strategy by many on the dem side.
Don’t blame me or mine. We actually voted for Lisa this round!
The key thing for McAdams is to get out front now and define himself while the Pubs are still counting ballots and angry at each other, before they get around to defining McAdams for him. Make sure the forces who fought the parental notification initiative get circled in, as I’m sure they’d like to channel their dissapointment into a GOTV effort for November. I’m in the lower 48, but I’d advise all Mudflatters to start talking McAdams up, get on his Facebook page and post about how you think McAdams can win with national financial support and media attention. Push the “one of us” and “real Alaskan” messages hard, Sitkans share personal anecdotes, etc., and do it now while curious people are Googling him to learn who he is.
That is actually excellent advice Allan.
If you thought the Tea Party Express put a lot of money into the campaign for Miller before, it’s going to be a heck of a lot more if he wins the nomination. They will certainly be looking to define McAdams first and I would think have already gone over his history and city voting records and anything else they can get their hands on.
Since it is going to be awhile before we know who actually has won this race it is a great time for the McAdams campaign to get started.
McAdams is already on a roll. Attended Netroots Nation. Has folks understanding that a dollar spent in Alaska for a Senator is more effective than a dollar spent anywhere else for a Senator.
More importantly, he speaks eloquently to the issues and will represent all Alaskans well–if they will just take the time to get to know him, and get beyond the sleezy ads the Tea Party will be tossing out.
Excellent points.
Agree with most of what you say there Allen, except for the “forces who fought the parental notification initiative”. I’m sure they’re already in McAdam’s camp. McAdam has a real chance now, but he’s still a long shot. He’ll have to reach out to independents and reasonable Republicans (yes, they exist) if he wants to win. A lot of those people, and even quite a few Democrats that I know, voted for Measure 2. Why dwell on that wedge issue? Instead, frame the alliance of Democrats, Independents, and reasonable Republicans as a rejection of the hate, bigotry, xenophobia, and demagoguery of the wing nuts who just nominated this lunatic.
McAdams has already defined himself. Just a click of the mouse will get you there.
Check out: http://scottmcadams.org
A very worthy candidate, regardless of the outcome of M&M showdown, it’s going to be an M&Mc showdown.
It surprised me that so many voted for Miller since he has lived there only 16 years. I thought he’d be considered an “outsider” by Alaska standards.
I think we’ll see in 2010 that Palin has destroyed much of the Repub party. By 2012, I think it will be in shambles. I went to one right wing site–rightosphere-and they were griping about how Palin had probably cost the R’s the Senate with Miller.
Gotta go get a sign and send some $, esp. now that my current window sign is, apparently, moot.
I am not an Alaskan. While I would love to see a Democrat win I would love to see Senator Lisa Murkowski run as an Independent like Charlie Crist in Florida. At least that way there will still be some sanity available to the Republican Party.
Noooooooo! She’s not an independent. She’s as partisan as they come.
That would only split the vote three ways. Not good.
Do you remember what happened in Florida with Ralph Nader in 2000? He canceled out the right candidate. Three way races are not the way for a candidate with moderate popularity to win.
My first thought on reading this is that America is going backwards.
It has been for a while.
This vote represents Alaskans willing to call themselves Republicans. Not hardly representative of America as a whole.
Excellent analysis. Many of my independant friends voted for Miller to unseat Lisa. Now we all need to talk up Scott McAdams but most importantly, SEND HIM A CONTRIBUTION, so he can get his message out.
I kind of feeling like throwing up and that I am on the loosing team. We can’t even jump the other teams captain behind the stands. I even took the R ballot knowing smarter progressives would handle the D side and voted Lisa and NOT Sean or Eddie.
I wasn’t asked which ballot i wanted, i guess because i was registered as a democrat. I also wasn’t asked for ID but after i voted i made sure i stopped by the workers and told them and showed them my ADL.
My polling place (ASD HQ) asked what ballot I wanted. I thought I was registered as a D but they just said: :take your pick”
Irishgirl, I agree we are going backwards. We seem to be heading toward fanatical, religious, dark ages and/or feudalism. The packaging may be nicer for those on the bottom but it is still a system that keeps you down while the wealthy control all you have and the church caters to the wealthy. The SCOTUS has sold us out and the media is bought and biased. Propaganda is rampant and we are being pushed back to ignorance . The crazies are winning more and more and people cheer! Prejudice and hate RULE. Thank God for the voices on Mudflats and Shannon and KO and Rachel to name a few who keep me in a good mood and let me have a few good laughs! OK-thanks for letting me rant, I feel better now.
You said it. I swear I might have been in a straight jacket by now if I hadn’t found passionate like-minded individuals on the Internet.
Let me jump in here since I can’t reply to every post stating Lisa should run as an Independent:
This is from the ADN, but the spam filter won’t let me post the link.
“Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai told me it’s too late for Murkowski to file to have her name appear on the ballot as an independent, so that would need to be a write-in effort. There is a Libertarian candidate in the race, Frederick Haase, who could choose to step down. The Libertarian Party could then select a replacement for him on the ballot.
There is no other third party candidate in the U.S. Senate race, so Libertarian would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run.”
Ah yes, our wacky election timing thing… AIP Governor Hickel, anyone? Bueller…?
Well I like many others in the lower 48 have have taken to Alaska politics because Sarah Palin is like watching a huge car pile-up on IH 35. That said, I would have to agree that the state is “complicated” after reading the artcile. Thanks for posting these informative articles for political junkies in the lower 48.
I do not know what to say. Lisa Murkowski went beyond the pale, and distorted and lied about President’s Obama’s record. Joe Miller went way beyond the pale, and lied about Lisa Murkowki’s record. May the best liar win? Please explain to me how using outright and blatant lying as a platform to get elected amounts to anything uniquely worthwhile? The crowd that hangs around Miller is the worst anti-everything racist element in Alaska. They radiate hate and disapproval. Nationally, the Tea Party is the last gasp of American White racism, afraid of everything, especially minorities and change. I grew up in the midwest, and these disaffected and hateful malcontents were always around, but never had even the rudimentary social skills to cooperate as a voting block. Looks like Sarah Palin has given them a voice.
Not really, she gave them permission to be racist, mean and scaredy cats. It has been the Internet medium which has given these people a voice (however they haven’t figured out spell check for the most part).
McAdams has plenty of integrity.
Everybody get over the Murkowski/Miller thing. That’s not about greater Alaska or America as a whole.
If McAdams has integrity then I hope Alaskans will give their voice and support to him in droves.
He probaby does not have the $$$ behind him like Miller will so it’s up to regular Alaskans to talk to their neighbors and write their newpapers and get behind someone who isn’t extreme or propped up by outside interests. Good luck!!
I have always liked the color “plum”. You have a wonderful way with words AKM.
I choose to be cheerful about this – and to send donations to Scott McAdams and whatever else I can do. If Miller wins the primary, this will fire up McAdams more than if Murkowski does, and all who support him. I am over the doom and gloom part – so I’m outta here before I get flamed for being hopeful!
Another thought – if Miller wins, he won’t have any power for awhile. Unfortunately, that matters. Alaskans normally voting for Lisa MAY realize this and do something different. A lot is at stake, and we see by ex Senator Steven’s memorial that Alaskans do know how important their representation is on a federal level. If they don’t, they shoot themselves in the foot and that’s been done before a lot, also too. Just makes things a whole lot more interesting, and sleeping giants may awake in this environment who would otherwise stay prone.
Two things that make me hopeful:
1. If Murkowski won the primary, some Dems might have just assumed that she would win in November and not bothered to vote at all. Since a lot of people seem to be okay with her in the Senate, enthusiasm for the campaign might have been underwhelming. However, with Miller as the Republican candidate, perhaps those Dems might get a little fire under their tushies and get themselves to the polls, adding to the totals for McAdams.
2. With Ted Steven’s funeral so fresh in everyone’s mind, they will be reminded of how important power in the Senate is to Alaska…and that Miller will have none as a rookie. As the focus in the campaign turns to Miller and reveals just how rightwing he is, more people may decide to go with the ‘rill’ Alaskan who’s got a good track record and isn’t a crazy person wandering around the woods.
By the way, is there some law that Senate candidates’ names HAD to start with the letter ‘M’?
Thanks for the pep talk MUYS! I’ve been in the slough of despair all day. Saw part of “Hardball” tonight and old Tweety thinks that $arah is going to run and she has all this “cred” and is a “king maker” and blah, blah, blah. I was sick to my stomach. I really don’t want to listen to the next two months worth of talking points that $arah has so much clout; her endorsement record is actually about 50/50, and some of those picks were purely calculated to back the leaders, not the tea party fave (ie. McCain, Branstad, Fiorino, etc.). Anyway, between your optimism and AKM’s analysis of McAdams’ chances, I’m feeling better. Perhaps I should stop reading the comments now.
All of these oddball primaries (sorry, Alaska!) are interesting because of the voter turnout. When voter turnout is low, conservatives win. I guess when they’re really low, whackos win. All of this points to why we have to get our liberal but unmotivated friends out to vote in November. I live in CA, where Meg Whitman is running for governor, so I’m already plenty motivated.
In my state, Andrew Cuomo is running for governor with Bob Duffy (the very popular mayor of Rochester…yayy!) as Lt Gov. The latest Rasmussen poll has him comfortably in the lead with 58% of the votes so there is no big incentive to vote for that position.
HOWEVER, my Congressman is a very conservative Republican and I am VERY motivated to change that in November! On the Senate side, Schumer and Gillibrand are pretty comfortably in the lead against any of their Republican challengers, but I’m not willing to assume anything these days!
That’s right, leenie17, assume nothing! I vote in every primary and general, every year, but many do not. My progressive (in most ways) Rep is being challenged by a complete unknown with backing from Wall St. (because Carolyn Maloney authored the bill protecting credit card customers). Reshma Saujani is also an alleged progressive, but I’m sticking with Carolyn. If she loses the primary, I’ll vote Saujani in the general, but I’m hoping Carolyn wins, and that Schumer and Gillibrand retain their seats in the Senate. I dislike Andrew Cuomo personally (long story), but he’s OK with me politically, and Republican governors have proved disastrous for NY. Best of luck to all of us.
I was planning on taking the R ballot and voting for all the wacko’s, especially Joe Miller, as I figured that he’d be easier to beat than Lisa. At the last minute I decided that since I was the only Dem that I knew planning on doing it, that it would be a wasted vote and only encourage Lisa to move more to the Right.
Little did I know that Prop 2 would bring out all the crazy Right-To-Lifer’s, and the Republican’s would do it to themselves! Elect a guy who doesn’t want Federal Money? In Alaska? Brilliant!
Once people hear about his plan to do away with the Department of Education, Make English the Official Language of Alaska, Arm All Parade Participants with Semi-Automatic Weapons………….
Scott McAdams really does have a chance! Hurray!
Semi-automatic? Not in Alaska! We have the right to carry fully automatic weapons in parades! And rocket launchers! Flame-throwers! What do you think this is, Michingan?
.
.
Oh, we have our share of nuts in Michigan. This is the home of the Michigan Militia and the breeding ground for Terry Nichols and one-time home of Timothy McVeigh (to our sorrow).
hahahhahaha–great August surprise.
Once Scott McAdams gets better known outside the Panhandle, Alaskans will figure out his representation will serve them well.
Thanks, Sarah. The gift that keeps on giving.
If Lisa actually loses I don’t think she’ll run as an Independent, as that may split the Conservative Vote (but then again, it’d be a good way of avoiding endorsing either candidate), but then, Watch Out Mark Begich! Of course, he’d have the seniority right? Or can Lisa keep her seniority if she skips four years?
She can’t run as an Independent, only a Libertarian Sorry if I’m sounding like a broken record!.
You’re not, but you might be getting frustrated with us. I embarrass myself frequently by doing this–replying to a comment, then scrolling down (or up) and finding the same point made previously, and often better, than I did.
Nation wide, on any level, in just about every case, the candidate who spends the most money and or reaches the largest audience, wins.
I’m curious, what were the polls showing over the last month, last week or so,were they really showing Miller pulling even or ahead?
In other words what are the early ballots most likely to reflect?
AKM – maybe you could do an “UDATED” and add that Lisa M can’t run as an Independent? It’s a grand idea but too late to file.
saw the Miller ad complete with lumberjack shirt and picking up antlers – shades of Scott Brown and his pick up truck (sigh). To contribute to Scott McAdams:
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/entity/24825
McAdams has a truck.
McAdams Bio (from his website):
“Scott McAdams is a small town Alaska mayor and is running for the United States Senate because he believes that Alaskan communities are more important than Washington Politics. Scott understands that Alaska is a small state made up of hundreds of small towns, and believes that every voice in Alaska is worth listening to. During his service as Mayor in Sitka, Scott has stood up for other Alaskan towns as the Chairman of the Southeast Alaska Conference of Mayors and as a member of the Alaska Municipal League Board of Directors.
Prior to being elected Mayor, Scott worked as a tireless advocate for Alaska’s kids at the community, state and national levels. As a local school leader, Scott served as President of the Sitka School Board, Vice-Chair of the Mt. Edgecumbe School Board, President of the Association of Alaska School Boards and was appointed to the National School Board Association Policy and Resolutions Committee where he played a critical role in the organizations passage of policy supporting Alaska Native language instruction.
Scott spent his elementary years in Petersburg, and spent his young adult years working as a commerical fishing deckhand around the state. He credits these years as installing an appreciation for hard work, as well as a deep admiration for Alaska’s commercial fishing heritage. Scott is a graduate of Sheldon Jackson College in Sitka, and currently serves as the Director of Community Schools in the Sitka School District. He and his wife Romee have three kids at home.”
Great analysis, AKM.
Certainly sounds as if McAdams would have a better chance defeating Miller than Murkowski (if Miller wins primary)…..Seems like a more hopeful scenario for Democrats than another Murkowski win
Nite from Ireland……I am so confused. Miller…evil. Lisa….evil. Does the GOP support anyone who wants to improve the USA?
No, they don’t.
Sure they do! they just define “USA” differently. Golf courses, CEOs and people who stand to inherit millions/billions comprise their USA.
These days, anyone who actually has ideas and is willing to work with the other side to accomplish something (horrors!!!) is perceived as a traitor to the Republican party.
It’s truly sad how the party has been distorted by the infleunce of the Tea Party and the candidates who are so desperate to win that they sacrifice their integrity and move all the way to the right.
It all sounds good in print but it will not happen. Too many Republicans actually like Joe Miller now; many of the powerful Republicans in the Valley are going to fight even harder for him now. I spoke to a few Pubs in Palmer today that are very thankful for the undeclared progressive folks that lent Miller their votes in an attempt to derail Lisa M and put into office, “Scott McWho?, oh yeah, that guy from Sitka”.
They are laughing and gloating and finding this all very funny. I was told by a very staunch Palmer Republican that they were actually amazed at how many votes Miller garnered. She said that they figured he would at best get 40% against Lisa but now he (Miller) has not only gained respectability through numbers but a position by which he will get much more funding from his supporters for the General Election in November. This is a really big win for the Conservative Republicans in Alaska; they realize it, the Tea Party Express realizes it, and if, as I was told today, you thought that Joe Miller’s Primary campaign was over the top with ads and signage, well now that he might likely win the primary his campaign for the General Election in November will be so over the top with money and signs and advertising that there is no one in this state that could compete.
Can the Mayor of Sitka find a comparable money and publicity source? I hope so, or we are stuck will Miller until 2016….not that it really makes any difference, but hey, I like to see the underdogs win in AK every now and then.
If it were just about money, it wouldn’t matter who won would it?
Why don’t you get to know McAdams better?
From a national Democratic perspective, unseating Murkowski is positive. Even if Miller wins the Senate seat, he will be a junior Senator without the political clout on committees which Lisa had. Pragmatically speaking, he can’t be much more obstructive to the Democratic agenda than Lisa has been, since she voted “No” most of the time anyway.
The Democrats nationally also benefit from the effects of Palin’s divisiveness within the GOP itself. Playing the GOP against the Tea Baggers doesn’t constitute a winning or rational strategy for conservatives.
While Miller’s potential win may represent a personally satisfying vendetta for Palin against Murkowski, it most likely comes at a high cost to Alaska’s state interests. As usual when Palin’s involved
Alaska’s state interests will be best served by McAdams.
Seems that Alaska is best served by anything that is the opposite of what Quittypants supports!
And that’s relevant, because? We passed on Fran Ulmer in favor of Frank Murkowski. That says it all.
I read a link somewhere that talked about the DNC. Someone from their outfit was saying that they’d not even considered AK in their national efforts, but hey, this could be interesting… So, perhaps we can look for some monetary & other support from the DNC for McAdams.
Reasonable Republicans in the Valley? Kind of an oxymoron. I don’t know a single one, and I know A) a lot of Republicans in AK, and B) a lot of Republicans in the Valley. They are all about guns & religion and don’t give a darn about anything else.
There are plenty of Republicans in the rest of the state who would not vote for Joe Miller for love or money. No way. I know plenty of them who could not bring themselves to pull the lever for the McCain/Palin ticket, so you can bet they’d have no trouble either voting for a Dem or not voting at all rather than vote for Miller. Anybody gloating about Miller in the Valley is living in la-la land.
That is not to say that Dems should not be very afraid. I cannot tell you how many times I was literally sick to my stomach about the apathy of dem voters in AK. I cannot think of anywhere else that I have lived where it has been so blatant. It has a lot to do with the motivated Repub voters in AK who have skewed votes for so long, for the decades of Stevens/Murkowski entrenchment, the apparent futility of voting for anyone without an “R” next to their name.
I am in TX now, and the situation is the same. If Dem voters turned out en masse people like Perry would be kicked to the curb. But getting them to the polls? Well, that is the big challenge.
Don’t despair, channel your frustration positively. Or you could run screaming from Alaska (or drive, which is what I did).
When I left AK for the UK many years ago I had lunch w/a co-worker/friend a few days before my flight. She asked me would I miss AK, I said no. She said something along the lines of “bet you’re glad to see the back of your ex (he was/is a really really low-down so&so)” and I said “actually, what I will be so glad to get away from is Alaskan voters! They are the most deadbeat bunch on the face of the earth, and continue to vote, over & over & over, against their own best interests, and are absolutely against funding anything “superfluous” like schools or parks!” Guess what, when I moved back to AK 4+ yrs later it was the same old thing only worse. The ex-husband is an ex, over, history, who cares, but the politics in AK that poisons the well from which everyone has to drink? It goes on & on & on.
Anyway, look for some love from the rural communities for Murkowski. She’s been good to them. The big question is whether or not they could be bothered to vote, after all, she was a shoe-in, right?
This is a typical attitude toward Southeast – very, very typical. Most Southwesterners have never been to this part of the state, and often forget about us (and make stuff up because they haven’t). This is exactly why it would be incredibly dangerous to move the capital to Southwest AK – huge parts of the state would be “written off” including much of Rural AK.. It’d be fun for a SE candidate to win!
Although I only lived in SE for a year a long time ago I agree. It would be great to have representation from a candidate “off the road system”.
Governor Jay Hammond was Mayor of Naknek.
That made no sense – I meant to say “make stuff up because they haven’t been here”. I lived up north – I was almost shocked at how few knew anything about SE. Then I got used to it, and told everyone I met that they better get their butt out and around the state because no region is the same.
Will miller have any supporters when Ballot #2 is not in the mix? It is my opinion that he got a huge chunk of voters who came out for that cause. I don’t believe they’ll get off their duffs for a person.
I’ll watching with bated breath to see how it all shakes out in November =D
One thing is for sure, gird your loins Mudpups because Sarah Palin’s got her groove back (or so she thinks) and we’ll be seeing more of her soon =D
Thanks for this analysis AKM!
And oh, let that be a lesson to us progressives – if Palin throw her hat in the ring and run in 2012, the evangelicals WILL turn out in droves to vote. Be prepared!
7600 absentee ballots to count, according to Division of Elections (APRN just reported)
We do not know how many of these are Republican ballots.
Miller’s lead has slimmed by a few hundred votes now… and there’s those 7600 ballots yet to be counted…lead dropped to 1668
Actually, that’s a gain for Miller–up from 1400 some. (ADN got it wrong)
And only part of those 7600 votes are Republican ballots. They are absentee ballots and could be from anywhere.
Chances are the Democratic candidates for Governor had some absentee campaigns going for them also.
Yikes- the ADN !
Should have checked the counts myself!
Oh- am sure some of those absentee ballots are for Democratic candidates…
Know quite a few folks who voted early and most are solid Democratic supporters.
Am NOT hoping Senator Murkowski pulls it back her way with absentee vote
just a thought.. suppose Lisa pulls this off…now for her to KEEP those Miller voters in her camp, just what do you think she is going to say/promise/do…. ???
Maybe be like McCain? Major flip-flops? Be political? Not sure of what she stands for?
McAdams vs Miller is going to be so refreshing. Alaskans will finally be able to see what the candidates actually stand for and can make a real choice for a change.
You know…unless you really unserstand the canidate…give it a rest. Sorry to throw water on the parade here…but some really do not have a clue as to what just transpired. I will not post for a while here..due to the fact…I know too well the canidate you are pinning for. Shaking my head?. do not mean to disrespect anyone her for their point of view….but.
Huh? Come on WWRWW, you’re an integral part of this community. Why drop out now? If you have information that’s unknown to the rest of us, why not share it? If we are unenlightened, then enlighten us. Especially those of us from “outside.” We only know what we read here or on the candidate’s websites. If there is unpublished information or the sites have whitewashed something, only you Akn’s can give us the truth.
If you get a chance, would you PM me if you are still part of the forum? Or email me? I have questions and would love to chat with you. Am headed north for a memorial, back on Monday.
If you get any info from WWRWW please, please share it with us. It sounds like she is referring to McAdams so what bodies does he have buried in the basement? Inquiring minds need to know.
I have my cape on! Ready!
I am not even a Republican but I want Lisa to win. I am not even from your state and I want her to win. I am so perplexed that the candidates that are running are winning. It is like an odd episode of the Twilight Zone. Or I have been waiting for Ashton K. to come and tell us that we have been badly “punked.”
i find it appaling to hear how much money was spent in the primary elections. one canadate in florida spent $50 million. McCain spent $21 million. And these are the people that are complaining about govt spending ?????? give me a break!
Just imagine how much money could be used for better purposes if we had Clean Elections legislation passed. In 2008, when I heard how much was being spent for the presidential election, I kept thinking about how much health care that could buy, or how many people that could feed or house. I wonder what the number would be if you added up all the money spent on elections in this country, starting at the local level.
Very well written piece. And Scott McAdams sounds pretty good, so far.
Scott’s a very nice person, as is Lisa.
Mr. Miller I have not met, but I really don’t care to have someone in Washington that tells people we all carry guns into WalMart or that gives the impression that we need to be heavily armed to participate in a parade at a family-friendly event. We have a right to be armed, but I don’t think it’s good for our tourist industry to give people the idea that we need to be packing heat everywhere we go.
OK, then. I will give you the truth from my very, very red part of Alaska. Since most of the people I work with are Republicans, I asked them today (also family members of my patients). The response: “I like him (Miller)” and “I can’t stand Lisa…sick of her double talk”. So I would say, lock, stock and barrel, they will vote for him in the general election. They think I am from outer space. They are much like what one of the above posters mentioned in the valley: absolutely giddy with happiness over the Miller possibility. Of course, these are the same people who voted for Sarah and some of them still love her. i would not call these people racists or bigots (have never heard one thing from them that would indicate this). They are, however, super conservative people who are anti-taxes, anti-social services, pro-guns, pro-bible, pro-business and they are full of themselves today for pushing “the establishment” around. I seriously hope that McAdams has a chance. I used to live in Sitka so I know some of the Southeast. But my heart says (even though I will send him what I can in terms of money and I will vote for him) that these crazy people are going to put the wing-nut in. And then they can live (or not) with the results. I don’t see the Libertarians and moderate Republicans voting Democrat. I just don’t see it. I hope that I am wrong.
Interestingly, none of them can figure out how Parnell got the numbers. They all claim not to have voted for him.
That’s exactly why it’s not a slam dunk yet!
Martha Unalaska Yard Sign….it’s been so long…I really have no idea how to get back on the chat forum….I have no dirt on anyone…just have seen it in action…or should I say, “inaction”? This is NOT a good situation that transpired here in Alaska today. Neither Miller or McAdams are remotely qualified…I have been shaking my head at all the “hoopla” for a while now on both of these canidates. Sounding good on paper is one thing…but being able to perform is quite another. I respectfully remove myself from further conversation re: these two canidates. Putting Alaska and Alaskan’s first…did NOT transpire today.
Cheer up dear friend. I emailed you. Is your cape on?
If you think McAdams is not qualified to represent us as a US Senator, you should state your case. McAdams could relinquish his ballot line to another Democrat, but that’s something that would have to happen sooner rather than later.
I, for one think Hollis French would be a great US Senator, representing the interests of all who live here. I can’t help but wonder, and nobody is talking about it, if French would have won against Berkowitz (who I despise and don’t trust) if “savy” Dems with undeclared status were not busy “playing chess.” It’s worth noting, that “the press” is ignoring the role of cross over Dems in the discussions about how Lisa got spanked. Can’t say I’m surprised, because to mention that (even APRN ignored it) would be to admit that Democrats have some power here in Alaska.
we have mudpups in the treehouse! come join us!
The vision of Joe Miller going to Washington and fighting against federal dollars is so priceless, I can’t wait. Maybe he will fight against more funding for the missile defense system, which bears some resemblance to that old description of an Alaskan fishing boat: in this case a giant hole in the ground: stand in a cold shower and flush billions into it, or send billions to Delta Junction and watch Boeing flush it down the toilet, to coin a mixed metaphor. Maybe he will get rid of the defense contractors in Afghanistan. Or stop work on the state department installations in Iraq. Or reign in the defense department and their new weapons programs. Ok my biases are showing. And to tell the truth, the education department, which he wants to get rid of, has lately been a little too focused on spending money on hired consulting companies to tell teachers how to teach and devising ever more not-so-clever tests- so many tests that the country is running out of statisticians. So we could get rid of all that testing: there is a platform for you Joe.
Of course, its going to be embarrassing to have someone representing us who many people in will consider a wing-nut. But then, we’ve been represented by Don Young for generations already.
Remember when Palin refused the stimulus money to upgrade buildings? People were none to happy. We will see how much money he does refuse because you know once they are elected they go right back to work to get re-elected.
Miller is getting alot of national attention now, McAdams is not. Miller is going to have a huge amount of money to spend and I doubt McAdams will. I would be shocked if Miller didn’t win. I think Alaskans better hope for a Murkowski miracle with the absentee ballots.
We are going to have alot of wackos in Washington come January, and that can’t be good for any of us. The teabagger here in Co. is polling ahead of the Democrat and they said he was too “out there” to win, so be careful what you wish for.
FWIW, costs for folks that live off the road system are very high. Miller’s rhetoric seems to indicate that part of his platform is to cut anything and everything; even here in Alaska. That position will not fly (except for a few wack jobs that think it will save them money). If he continues with the line he used in the primary he is dead meat. AFN meets in October in Fairbanks, that might be when Miller is forced to bite the bullet. Just thinking.
Let me see if I got this right?
You don’t want Miller in because he will be powerless in a Senate that may well have a majority of Republicans, but you do want Sitka Scott in, because he will be less powerless with a Democratic minority in the Senate.
Wow. That is illogical.
If you are counting on Murk winning, remember she screwed Eight coastal island towns on Prince fo Wales with S 881 and they are sending in absentee ballots which are not going to have her name checked.
It is over. Miller won. Get over it.
Seems to me you’re resting your case on too many assumptions “tootles.” But what the heck – the man behind the curtain has his finger on the button. Laddedah Ladeedah…..
This is a beautifully written analysis as usual, but I for one am just as stunned and horrified by this development as when Sarah was listed as the winner of the multi-candidate Gubernatorial race in 2006.
For Alaska’s off the grid areas and Native areas, this is not great political theater, this is a very real threat to our survival when you consider the glacial progress we’ve been making toward 21st Century living conditions after decades of effort from seniority and pragmatism in the US Senate.
I tired of Lisa’s Party Line rhetoric too, but she’s done more for Western Alaska in her first two years than what her father did in over 20 years as our State’s junior Senator. She may tow the Party line and pitch red meat here and there, but she will answer to NGO, tribal and constituents as much as Ted Stevens did. Miller came out to Bethel and couldn’t even answer a question beyond his populist talking points. He’s out if his depth. Sound familiar? And he isn’t even married to a ‘native’ to pretend to be responsive.
Even if it was only for six years, that is a lifetime of nothing accomplished in the subArctic. We will again be the forgotten ones, because to Constitutional-freaks like Miller, we are merely a special interest group that is not a government responsibility.
And for those that think McAdams has a chance, I’m sorry you are comfortable gambling on our future that way. And this is no offense to Scott, I just don’t believe he’ll overtake the momentum this Peter Principle candidate just achieved in gaining legitimacy in the eyes of the ascendent Right population.
It is to Lisa’s credit that she works so hard for Rural AK – that is her best work!
Whew – thanks for your comments!
I think you are right Villages. I could never bring myself to vote for someone I knew was dangerous for my state and country on the “slight” chance it would be easier to beat them. Unless you feel like Murkowski and Miller are equally dangerous and it doesn’t matter which one is elected. Your state has more to lose than most with the amount of money you get from the Federal Gov..
To make all this even worse, all you hear is Palin is so powerful, a kingmaker, blah,blah,blah.
I am going to be sick.
Thank you, I See Villages from My House……Miller is NOT qualified in the least bit…and your way of life will get very little notice from him. And Tootles……it’s NOT just about POW…it’s about our whole State! It seems that Sarah Heath Palin has accomplished pulling us apart just like she’s pulling the United States apart with her special interest groups representing hate and fear mongering. People gambeled without doing their homework. Let’s see…I read it somewhere that if I pick the R. ballot and vote for the creepiest, then my D. pick will have a slightly better chance at winning? Why would any reasonable D. who actually cares about Western Alaska and their plight would gamble with their representation? I just don’t get it. Neither Miller or McAdams are remotely qualified….and those that only care about their own backyards rolled the dice against all of Alaska. You all just saw how strong the far right is in Alaska….McAdams does NOT have even a remote chance….and now, with your help you may have actually accomplished putting in a total NUT JOB in D.C to really only represent a very small group of people who don’t even live in Alaska.
Hang in there!
Mr Constitutional-freak Miller must be MADE to articulate his stance on “Congress shall have Power . . . To regulate Commerce . . . with the Indian Tribes.”
What does he know about the everyday lives and issues of Alaskans outside the railbelt??!
If he proposes to stand for Alaskans , any dialogue with his possible constituents must include a full rendering of his stance regarding bush Alaska and Alaska Native concerns.
The proposed Sealaska land transfer has rightfully hurt Senator Murkowski here in Southeast but it doesn’t negate the other work she has done for rural Alaska.
If he takes this primary rural Alaska is ready to fight, right?
Haven’t had to duke it out for awhile , so am hoping folks are getting ready…
and while we’re at it…
Ms Murkowski’s ( Mr Begich’s too) stance on changing the Internal Revenue Code to exempt CDQ for-profit- feeder businesses from US taxes has hurt her along the coast bordering the BSAI fisheries but Mr CF Miller MUST be made to articulate his stance on fisheries in US waters off the coast…
What does he think about issues of state and federal sovereignty regarding fisheries resources? The PSC? The MSA? The neoliberal privatization of federal waters off all coasts which has such a huge impact on salmon fisheries?
If he proposes to stand at the federal level , what is he going to tell Alaska about ANILCA?
Time to get bustling…
I’ll wager, that if he wins this primary, Palin will school him on how to avoid the press and answer questions. Wanna bet?
Has been a long time since rural Alaska stood up and roared and this might just be the time for it to happen again…
Ole cookies and bible tracts whatzername is NOT popular in the bush…
Mr Miller better start studying something other than her MO if he wins this primary…
And he better be careful about sovereignty issues…
I admit, I rolled the dice. For the first time in years, I held my breath and asked for the (R)evolting ballot. It’s the beauty of being a registered non partisan. I voted for Miller with the hopes that the Dems can put together a campaign for McAdams. I didn’t see McAdams as having any chance against oil can Lisa.
I hope you learned your lesson – even if Murkowski does prevail after the absentee ballots are counted.
We seem to take the process so lightly in this country but voting is a privilege and I truly wish that people would stop trying to game the system.
Very interesting analysis…I liked everyone’s comments
I do not live in Alaska (have family there) so it really should be none of my business who you elect. Usually I stay out of state elections as I truly believe the people of that state, or district, or town, etc are the only ones who should be involved
However, these days I am running scared for my country. So I will give to his campaign…a small amount. Just like I have donated to Conway, Reid, Boxer, Coussoule, (oh I wish I could give tons to him), just to name a few.. to help counter all the big donations from the Koch brothers…oh I mean tea party express
Campaign reform is the only way to regain any sense of democracy. We are watching as one after another election around our country is being bought.
(did you see who won the GOP primary for gov in florida…need any more proof?)
“…As we’ve just witnessed, all it takes is money to get the message out and bring voters to the polls…”
__
That’s the problem. With the advent of the Citizen’s United case that the Supreme Court allowed, the Corporate Tea party/Republican party can money bomb the state in favor of this Joe Miller guy. And they have more money than anyone can possibly imagine.
But we all have to ask ourselves: Do we really want to return to the policies of the Bush years that got us into this mess in the first place?
Great piece, J.
Since voter ballot tampering and fraud is so easier now: are Alaskans certain the count reflects the ballots cast in each district? just speaking as an Ohioany
A hugh blight on the political history of Alaska – the election of Sarah Palin
as governor. I wonder if there was fraud when the votes were counted ??
Needless to say, she was not qualified for the office. And since her 15
minutes of fame with McCain, she has demonstrated to the world that she is
unqualified for any political office in the future.
I want to ask these questions of both candidates, if they would vote to keep the Bush tax breaks for the wealthy(rather than pay down the deficit or use the money more for the good of all)..If they would advance fair trade, rather than free trade…and curtail defense spending and base building worldwide…bring back jobs sent overseas or at least tax the perpetrators of off shoring jobs …vote for campaign finance reform…hmmm…what else…there is a new world coming and we have the chance to make it a better one, or watch our lives and planet crumble from greed and overconsumption. New jobs can be had in promoting new infrastructure, transportation, safe agricultural practices, alternative fuels…we won’t take no for an answer…the truth is out there, we need to discern it and not go for the hype.