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November 22, 2014

Breaking: New Alaska Senate Poll Shows McAdams Surging Past Embattled Joe Miller

A new poll conducted by Hays Research confirms what we already intuitively know. Alaska U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller’s candidacy is in big trouble.

The percentage of those who feel either “somewhat negative” or “very negative” about Miller has skyrocketed in recent weeks to an unbelievable 68%. Only 8% feel “somewhat negative” and the remainder, a jaw-dropping 60%,  feel “very negative” about Miller as a candidate.

A series of gaffes, inconsistencies, and controversial statements to the press, in addition to the arrest of a journalist by Miller security guards have come one on top of another, causing a trend that can only be described as a campaign death spiral. Miller’s hard-core supporters who view him very favorably have held in there, showing a decrease of only 3% since October 6, but his “somewhat favorable” rating went from 20% to 9% in that time. Miller’s “somewhat unfavorable” rating dipped from 13% to 8%, underscoring the voter stampede toward “very unfavorable” which skyrocketed from 38% to 60% in less than three weeks.

If there could be even worse news for the Miller camp it’s that this devastating poll occurred before the headline “Miller’s employee records reveal numerous lies” appeared on newsstands on the front page of today’s Anchorage Daily News, which quotes a damning email in which Miller repeatedly lied about his misuse of Borough computers for political purposes while he wa a part-time lawyer for the Borough in 2008.

This all begs the question, if Miller is hemorrhaging voters, where are they going?  The numbers bear out the anti-incumbency sentiment, and voter frustration with the ‘establishment’, because Miller’s supporters seem to be jumping ship mostly for McAdams.

Hays asked the question,(replicating the experience of the voter going in to the booth in which they will not see the name of write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski on the ballot) “If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Joe Miller, Scott McAdams, Frederick Haase, Tim Carter, Ted Gianoutsos, or another candidate you have to write in, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?

The result? Scott McAdams surging ahead of Joe Miller with 29%, Joe Miller with 23%, and the write-in candidate (most of which are presumably Lisa Murkowski) with a small gain bringing her to 34%, and undecided voters still at 13%. This is the first time that McAdams has polled better than Miller, and he did it by six points, comfortably outside the margin of error of 4.8% – a watershed moment for the McAdams campaign.

Just for fun, I took the information from the Hays poll and added trend lines, projecting them out to November 2, Election Day.

According to the basic trend lines, Joe Miller continues the plunge, and McAdams and Murkowski meet at the summit.

So what does this all mean?

First, for everyone who is terrified of Joe Miller, take heart. With a 68% disapproval rating, and his trend line looking like the flight of the Hindenberg even before the latest scandal hit the news, the chances of him actually pulling it off and winning this election are slim. And that’s a good thing for anyone who was holding their nose and voting based on fear and not based on their values. Alaskans who felt forced to vote for Murkowski because they believed it was the only way to save the state from Joe Miller, you’re off the hook. You no longer have to vote for someone who has voted against the best interest of Alaska, and with party leadership more than 90% of the time. You no longer have to vote for someone who has been bankrolled by corporations and Outside interests. You no longer have to vote for Miller Lite.

It also means that Lisa Murkowski’s newest slogan “A Vote for McAdams is a Vote for Miller” has just been neutered by the numbers.

More good news for McAdams “poll watchers” is that no poll can take into account the looming threat of legal challenges by both political parties to write-in votes, the inevitable voter error, or the unsuccessful history of write-in candidacies. But despite the fact that this type of race is notoriously difficult to poll, there is no doubt, considering the trend over time, that this race is looking more and more like it IS all about Alaska.

So, if you are an Alaskan voter who has found it increasingly impossible to put your state in the hands of the Tea Party candidate, or leave your state in the hands of the corporate “party line” candidate, you’re not the only one.

After several successful debates, a consistent positive message about what is best for Alaska, and a pledge to never accept one dollar from corporate PACs, Scott McAdams is in the middle of a grassroots surge, gaining an unbelievable 13% since October 6, with no signs of stopping.  If there’s one thing that Joe Miller got right, it’s his campaign slogan, “If you want to change D.C., you’ve got to change the people that are there.” Alaskans seem to agree with the sentiment, but they no longer believe that Joe Miller is the kind of change they want.

.pdf of Miller +/-

.pdf of Senate Head to Head

Comments

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Comments
93 Responses to “Breaking: New Alaska Senate Poll Shows McAdams Surging Past Embattled Joe Miller”
  1. ibwilliamsi says:

    I’m hoping that these people who are “trending downward” for Joe didn’t mail in their ballots weeks ago…

  2. Brad Sven says:

    As an Alaskan living overseas, I have been following this race closely and this article couldn’t have made me happier! I was one of those honestly planning to vote to Lisa to save us from Joe but no more! Wow, two Dems from AK in Washington? Really? After Palin, we might just be able to have some respect back on the Hill.

  3. BigSlick says:

    Joe the Anchor, with the anchor-chain wrapped tightly around Snowbilly Grifter’s right thigh

  4. AK_Woman says:

    Instead of the “scary” Halloween ad this should be Joe’s real truth-in-advertising ad:

  5. Viapops says:

    Check out S3851 introduced 9/6/06 by Lisa on the floor of the US Senate and directly related to the following.

    Lisa told a whopper to Petersburg residents in 2007. She said twice she had NOT “given support” to the company that proposed the highly controversial mega hydro project near Thomas Bay/Petersburg. She claimed she had only been “briefed”. Yet one year earlier on 9/6/06 she introduced on the floor of the Senate S3851 that would have granted an extension, in effect doubling the length of time the company had to fulfill the terms of the FERC preliminary permit for the project, from three to six years. The sole beneficiaries of the bill were essentially the same company that was pardoned, (for criminally negligent homicide in the death of a worker and father of five) by her Dad at the eleventh hour of his governorship. The pardon not only excused their guilt but also enabled the company to continue to business in the State. Additionally, at the time of the pardon, they owed the State $150,000 in unpaid fines, which had grown to $250,000 in the six years since the accident. Due to the pardon the State never recovered those monies. Lisa introduced S3851 exclusively FOR the benefit of this company.

    I certainly don’t understand how she could forget that she introduced this major piece of legislation, or that after only being “briefed” she would stand on the floor of Congress to introduce a bill for which she had only been briefed. But given the history of the company I sure wouldn’t want to be associated with them either. Maybe some think this kind of behavior is okay since she’s a politician but I wrote her off after that.

    The carpet-bagging lower-48 company later approached Angoon (aka Kookesh’s turf) to be a front group so they could use their Native Preference to secure the project over other applicants for the permit. They did the same with the City of Wrangell to front for their Municipal Preference.

    This is the cozy back-room shenanigans that voters could unwittingly endorse if they vote for Lisa and her “Alaska Mafia” – as they are known in DC.

  6. Gasman says:

    Is it time to stick a fork in Miller yet?

  7. Bobbie says:

    Wasn’t he in Washington measuring for drapes recently? I’d say for Joe…curtains.

  8. TX SMR says:

    Okay, I really really will sign off, after I link to this, it is pure TBogg masterpiece. Mind the language, if you’re easily offended it’s not for you, but if you need a really really really good laugh about all of the joe liar stuff, this is the piece you’ve been waiting for:

    http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2010/10/26/douchey-joe-miller-was-not-having-any-fun-in-anchorage-so-he-got-firedquit/

    • nswfm says:

      Thanks for that. This is clean:

      “So, anyway, it seems that Joe Miller was some kind of part-time  civil service leech/lawyer in this office and this one day everyone went to lunch without Joe because he chews with his mouth open, and while they were all gone he got on their computers and started voting in some kind of online  Republican beauty contest or something and maybe also checking out the merchandise on rentboy.com but, really, who knows because when he was done he cleared the caches on all of the computers. When his fellow workers came back Joe was sitting at his desk eating a Moose n ‘Cheese lunchable like nothing had happened. But when the other employees got on their computers they found out that their  important work-related websites (textsfromlastnight, fredericks, and cuteoverload) were gone along with saved passwords….”

  9. physicsmom says:

    Thanks again to the thoughtful and informed bloggers here. I had not tried Rachel’s blog yet, so I think that’s an excellent idea. Will also look at some of the blogrolls mentioned. I’ve pretty much been through all of them at IM, though they seem to be more AK focused (as seems appropriate). I’m not familiar with AmericaBlog, but I did note that there was a representative from there at the President’s forum with bloggers yesterday. So that’s a good recommendation as well. As usual, the Mudflats community rocks!

  10. Krubozumo Nyankoye says:

    A lot of intelligent and meaningful comments here as usual but I have to caution that polls are not all that accurate and so given the history, this thing is still too close to call. Of course I sincerely hope that sanity prevails but my thick carapace reminds me that in the past is has not.

    I will make a comment on Huff Po which is out of character for me. I read it for a while about two years ago but I soon came to realize that it was a cousin of Fox News in terms of publishing whatever got the most traffic as opposed to what was the truth. My beef with Huff Po is wide and deep. Their proclivity to give a platform to anti-vaccination pseudo-science is in itself a disqualifier, but today’s headline as cited above is an even more egregious example of pandering for traffic.

    I would urge AKM to think hard about the tradeoffs between exposure and guilt by association of publishing at Huff PO. There are many many alternatives that I think would welcome you as a guest poster and many of them are intriciately networked to provide similar exposure.

    The fact that all of the conventional wisdom accepts the idea that the extremist right wing is on a roll and will win big in this election shapes to some extent what will ultimately happen. I think it should be pointed out that all the major news media are controlled by large corporations and that corporations have no particular reason to remain neutral with respect to shaping national events. Their interests are not coequal with the interests of the electorate so their consistent and persistent promotion of a narrative that the republicans are going to win big has the effect of discouraging democrats from voting and they are well aware of it. The sad thing is that they do so because the know the republicans will give them whatever they want on a silver platter, but the democrats will have to be bribed.

    Once again, good luck Alaska, I hope you can elect a senator instead of a hack.

    • nswfm says:

      HuffPost pretty much lost me when I learned they were censoring $P comments. She’s a dolt and they know it, but the censor anyway. I will listen to Arianna on Left Right and Center which you can get through KCRW, but prefer OnPointRadio (Boston based, but the Tom did live in AK although he grew up in the Midwest) and Warren Olney (formerly Bay Area) and some of the interviewers on KPCC (both in the LA area). Many sources of info are good so you can examine and evaluate and synthesize the various perspectives–Palin Q&A+Fun blog has a good blog roll as does The Immoral Minority Blog and The America Blog on a wider variety of topics. Zero Hedge if you want to know about financial info has a good blog roll, too.

      • nswfm says:

        HOW COULD I FORGET RACHEL MADDOW? The Daily Show and The Colbert Report?

        When they went to 500 channels, I knew TV would turn to crap, and didn’t have one when I lived in NYC, but Rachel does good work, unlike Mary Hart interviewing $P on Entertainment Tonight. What garbage!

        • fishingmamma says:

          I’d never heard of Mary Hart before today. Now I know why. What a ridiculously inane interview! It was so bad, it would be cruel to parody that. Just two self-absorbed, middle-aged women wearing too much lip gloss and preening for the cameras. With a flag draped across the wall in the living room! Yeah, I have one of those, too! My eyes are burning.

  11. physicsmom says:

    Thank you all for the pep talk and thanks especially to Alaska Pi for the link. I bookmarked it to send to a friend who is in much the same mood as I. I’m eagerly awaiting the Supreme’s final decision on list-gate, as are you all, and hoping at the same time that the Flats doesn’t get swamped again. Ah, the price of success.

    As a side note to this discussion, if you don’t use Huff Post for general news any more, where do you go? I also go to Daily Kos and sometimes MSNBC and the NYT. I used to read Politico, but they have become too right-facing for my taste. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

    • Moose Pucky says:

      KOS

      Any mudpup here can start their own diary and blog away.

      Someone had withdrawals so bad today, they created their own Emergency Meet-up Site on KOS.

      Alaska News So Hot and Breaking, Mudflats is Down

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/28/910444/-AK-Sen,-Alaska-News-So-Hot-and-Breaking,-Mudflats-is-Down

      :)

    • TX SMR says:

      Washington Monthly is really great for rational discussion of pertinent political of-the-moment issues. I absolutely love it.

      http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/

      I used to be a devoted Sully fan, but I am too emotionally drained from all of the political fervor to tolerate the emotional highs & lows of his site — he is a bit too supportive of some who don’t merit any support whatsoever. I will say, though, that he is great with the big issues, and has a great deal to contribute to big issue discussions in the blogosphere.

      http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/

      Balloon Juice is great and I read there several times a day, funny, wry political commentary and some brilliant commenters. They are a very tight group, like Mudflatters, I read there, but don’t comment, I don’t have much to contribute, as they definitely cover all the bases in the course of the post & the comments. As a side note, I love the revolving tag lines, particularly the one saying something along the lines of “I showered with Rahm and all I got was this &*^% blog.”

      http://www.balloon-juice.com/

      And for some serious political hilarity, TBogg has some brilliant stuff. His stuff on teabaggers makes me laugh until I cry.

      http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/

      I’m not easily offended by language, so if you are I give warning about those last two recommendations…

      I hope that you like at least one of them!

    • TX SMR says:

      I posted a long-ish response to this with some suggestions, it appears as though it’s in moderation (the links?), perhaps it will get released from the pokey soon? In case it doesn’t, my suggestions are, in no particular order, but I did qualify them w/comments & my own take on them in my moderated comment:

      Washington Monthly (great, awesome, I go there several times a day. Steven Benen is great)
      Daily Dish — Andrew Sullivan (great on some really important issues, I don’t always agree with him, and that is how it’s supposed to be, really)
      Balloon Juice (smart, funny, very close group there, I’m just a reader, not a commenter, they’re kind of clique-ish, in a good way)
      TBogg at firedoglake is so funny funny funny, laugh til you cry funny, and right up my alley

      I didn’t put it in the original comment, but have found it recently and been enjoying it: No More Mister Nice Blog.

      Now I’m REALLY signing off for the night!

  12. TX SMR says:

    Wow, thanks AK Pi. That was a great link. It made me feel better — you’re brilliant. It didn’t make me feel better about hateful people or the state of politics in AK and the rest of the US, but it did make me feel better about myself in regard to my own personal activist goals.

    In TX, even more so than in AK, trying to fight bigotry, racism, small-mindedness, etc., feels like an exercise in futility. Today I had a great conversation with a boy in one of my classes, though, gave him some encouraging words and we were able to create our own little 2-person island of sanity in our redneck of the woods. That, and the massive donation that we gave to a local books-on-wheels organization today will have to be my positive activism credits. And I did school a girl about quitter governor, that she is not a real politician, that no, the way she acts is not the way all politicians act, and that there are politicians and there are inherently dishonorable & dishonest people, and she is definitely of the latter category. But that just made me frustrated (that girl has been brainwashed and is not likely to have her mind changed, but I gave it my best shot).

    About that books on wheels outfit — do you know that right across the highway from utopia where I live, full of fabulously wealthy people (no, we are not in that group), there is a community that does not even have running water? In an oil state!!!!!!!! Right across the highway! Anyway, the lady who runs the bookmobile does so much for those people. She’s great!

    Oh yeah — HuffPo has become pretty much tabloid fare — whether it’s news or gossip. They treat real news items the same as they treat gossip about pregnancies and marriages and stuff. I almost NEVER click on their headlines. There’s very little there worth reading these days, and I say that as someone who was utterly addicted to HuffPo up until about a year ago.

    TG for Mudflats and Mudflatters (and Gryph, he’s awesome. And Phil M. And Shannyn. And a whole bunch of other awesome Alaska bloggers).

    • Alaska Pi says:

      Well- Alaska misses you my friend, so if I could help you make a tiny space to hear your own good and true heart beat with it’s activist purpose I’m hoping you feel beholden enough to come see us now and again ! :-)
      Besides- we are here on a thread of hope…
      Mr Miller is tanking, Mr McAdams is moving right up, as well he should and
      well, who cares where Ms Murkowski is… eh?

      • TX SMR says:

        Hugs to you, my friend. When that glorious day comes that the big little one gets her degree I will be back your way. Once in a while I think about flying up there for a long weekend with her, bringing the little little one along to keep it lively, but I am completely swamped by school & family here, so don’t see it in the cards for some time. Yesterday was Big Little’s 20th birthday. I cannot believe it. If I go back to your neck of the woods you can be certain that you are on my must-see list!

        We must all live in hope, all day, every day, whether it’s to do with politics or not, I guess. When we’re running low on the hope supplies we can head here to see if we can re-fuel. Thanks AK Pi and the rest of the great Mudflatters, you’ve all been good for me tonight.

        Now it’s late and I have been burning the midnight oil all week, so it’s off to bed for me.

        Besos!!!!!!!!!!!

  13. physicsmom says:

    I’m kind of discouraged. I’ve been looking for a place all day to discuss the issue of the AK Supreme Court ruling on the write in list being supplied to voters. Looking for Alaskans’ take on how they think this case is going to end up. Everywhere I go, i encourage people to vote for Scott, and vote values not fears, but I’m still afraid that the outcome of the election will be decided by the court. Just like in 2000. Can anyone talk me down?
    Plus the news all day has been disappointing; the pundits seem to have had a convention and agreed to say the election is over and the Republicans have won. This talk depresses turnout and is SO negative. I hate it when the media tries to influence the results of the elections. Plus they have been panning Pres. Obama’s performance on the Daily Show yesterday saying it was defensive. Well based on Jon’s questions, it had to be. I don’t fault Jon; I understand why he asked what he did, and Obama answered as best he could, but the headline on Huff Post read something like “Is Obama Trying to Lose the Midterms?” That’s just nuts. Help!

    • TX SMR says:

      I’m feeling your pain. I have been very discouraged lately re: the dumbing-down of candidates and the low-bar set for discourse. Oddly enough a lot of it can be traced back to the horrible day when mclame picked the evil lady and she started with the lying & hating at the RNC and it all went downhill from there.

      I have to say that the court ruling establishes a dangerous & slippery slope for future elections. No news flash for me that AK courts suck.

      I was thinking just within the last hour about the media, how there’s so much blah blah blah about liberal media from the right-wing hatestapo and as far as I can see that liberal media is utter crap and publishes all sorts of negative stuff and is definitely part of the problem rather than the solution to the problem, at least more often than not, and that while the hatestapo certainly have reason to complain about the ethics & principles of the media, it doesn’t mean a lot coming from a group that gets its news from fox, but that doesn’t make it better for the rest of us dying for some clarity & perspective & honesty.

      It would be nice to get some facts. Give us the numbers and keep your defeatist headlines to yourself, thank you very much.

      It’s all very discouraging.

      • beth says:

        Yuppers – and handing out predictions left and right does a *great* disservice to the voting public, too and also, I believe.

        The way I see it, these ‘early voting results’ and ‘trend analysis’ are so much smoke and mirror hooey. Trends, schmends.

        Just because a person is a “Registered [whatever]” and they’ve returned their ballot/voted, that does *not* mean they’ve voted for the candidate running on their [whatever party] ticket.

        The only *legitimate* claim that can be made by those tracking early voting is the *number* of ballots returned…and possibly, a breakdown of the *number* of ballots returned by voters registered with any given party. That’s *all* that can be claimed.

        There are NO results *until* the close of polling on election day. Before then, there’s NO way to ‘count’ anything — there’s really not even any way to *accurately* predict an outcome since the only thing that counts is the actual vote. No amount of telephone surveys, in-person surveys, or anything else, can guarantee which lever the voter will pull in the anonymity and strict secrecy of the voting booth.

        Announcing [presumed] ‘results’ and ‘scholarly analysis’ is dangerous – it makes those whose candidate is ‘ahead‘ think they don’t have to vote because their candidate already has it in the bag and/or it makes those whose candidate is ‘behind‘ think *they* don’t have to vote because their candidate has already lost. Why do you think national elections *results* on the *east* coast *cannot* be announced until ALL polling places on the *west* coast are closed?

        The ONLY number that counts is the number of votes a candidate gets…those who get more, win; those who get fewer, do not win. All the polls and analysis in the world will not change that fact. Anyone who puts stock in the polls and their analysis, either doesn’t understand what polls are, or is a danmed fool; incredibly, way too many people take what the pundits ‘say’ as gospel… as something *they* cannot change by actually casting *their* vote. That makes me sad. beth.

    • Alaska Pi says:

      The State Supreme Court has NOT ruled anything yet- they have made conditions which will stand while they sort this out.
      Write-in ballots which voters requested help with -the list thingy- will be sequestered until it’s all sorted out. Don’t quite understand what happens with all the earlier early votes where the list was available…aren’t they already sequestered?
      Arguments start tomorrow.
      The state usually gets this kind of deference ahead of a hearing- it’s not new or weird.
      Don’t let it get you down.
      I’m a bit ticked Ms Murkowski has joined as a respondent but there may be some backlash because of that.
      Court is where we duke it out in a civilized society- the state wanted to take it further and it is it’s/their right to do so.
      I have no idea what will happen but I’m not going to let it get me down. It may get very messy, it may be over very soon. I may be really mad at my state again, I may be pretty darned proud…
      My ballot is safe and secure because there will be no write in.
      Voters can bypass getting us all balled up in this by voting for Mr McAdams.

      I don’t have TV so the pundit thingy escapes me or I escape it.

      http://groundswellalaska.com/2010/06/17/ten-suggestions-for-effective-activism-paul-rogat-loeb/
      go here, read carefully and breathe deep. This blog belongs to someone who works tirelessly for legislation and action regarding fish… everyone has low moments .
      see suggestion 8…
      no matter what happens in this election, there have been, will be, always will be many bright spots along the way…
      here at MF is one of them.

    • Lee323 says:

      HuffPo thrives on teasing and controversial headlines to get readers to click on their stories. Period. I rarely go to HuffPo anymore because the site is so overtly sensationalistic and disingenuous about their motives. It’s become a cesspool, with some notable exceptions.

      The general media will act just as surprised as everyone else when the outcome of the election doesn’t fit the narrative they’ve been pushing…..And do they really care? No. It will be one more story they can then analyze and spin for months. Diane Sawyer tonight talked about the Alaska Senate race as if it were only between Murkowski and Miller! Yet, Miller has tanked, and McAdams is soaring in the polls. Will Ms. Sawyer be surprised if McAdams wins? Who knows? Who cares? If the media are so lazy that they can’t even stay up with the facts of a race before they go on air creating their own political narrative which is at odds with reality, why even listen to the foolish schmucks. Bloggers rule!

      • dreamgirl says:

        Agreed. I haven’t been to HuffPo in months. When they changed their comment section into a juvenile–“Fanned and Fav’ed, Super-User” contest, I was over it. Add that to the “cesspool” atmosphere of articles and commentors nastiness…well buh-bye HP. I will read 1 or 2 articles, MAYBE once a month if even that. They lost me as a fan and reader because of their sensationalism and encouraging nasty comments.

    • Moose Pucky says:

      Cheer up. Folks who are feeling uncertain about the legality of their write-in vote probably ought to reconsider and vote McAdams–just because he’s the best candidate and that’s the vote most likely to be counted on election night without a legal challenge. A secure vote.

      Write Lisa OFF! She created her own problems by taking this to the Supreme Court.

      Vote McAdams.

  14. BS says:

    This post absolutely made my day! I was depressed last night after watching the debate and contemplating what my life would be like with a Miller win. I should have known not to borrow trouble! I am psyched up now!

  15. Moose Pucky says:

    Lisa Digerownholeski? Set herself up for nothing but legal challenges on write-in votes.

    Miller has a small and shrinking loyal band of supporters. Will help split the sorry Republican vote.

    Winning this is as easy as uniting behind Scott McAdams.

  16. Zyxomma says:

    After spending minutes out of every hour since early a.m. trying to get here, I’m glad to be here at the ‘flats. Alaskans, talk to everyone you know about Scott McAdams, especially now that those pesky lists of write-in candidates are going back up at the polls.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/28/lisa-murkowski-can-appear_n_775221.html

    Who cares? Scott’s on the ballot, and all you have to do is fill in the oval next to his name, and scan your ballot!

  17. vyccan says:

    Oh my gosh! I can’t believe I got through! I’ve been trying ALL day! Now I’ll just wipe the grin off my face and go back up to #1 to read the post and comments.

  18. leenie17 says:

    This is the first time in a very looong time that a positive campaign, run on a positive message without nasty, vile ads, has proved to be a winning one. Congrats to Scott and his campaign for consistently taking the high road when the temptation, and the opportunity, to get down in the gutter must have been overwhelming.

    It seems as though the voters are finally seeing that Scott is in this for Alaska, not for himself. Perhaps the memories of your most recent experience with a self-involved politician are helping people to choose the right road and avoid several more years of “It’s all about meeeeeee!!!”

    Happy, happy news ! ! ! :)

  19. Cassie Jeep says:

    Egads! 12 hours of trying to check in on Mudflats and getting error messages!

    I’m so glad AKM is still here and functioning!

    Go Scott! Miller is crashing and burning—even with the grizzly (wannabe)mama.

    • beth says:

      I know what you mean, Cassie Jeep. My day has been *totally* discombobulated because I’ve not been able to check on how my mudflats are doing and how my mudpeeps are reacting to the day’s events.

      I love, Love, LOVE when AKM cross-posts on HuffPo, but I hate, Hate, HATE that that cross-posting makes my coming to ‘*my* AK home’, an impossibility. I’m tickled that others are exposed to AKMs insight, analysis, and fantastic writing when she cross-posts, but dang it sure does throw a monkey wrench into the routines of my day…

      Not being able to get to the ‘flats because of [additional] traffic sure makes me a bit of grump-pot. No, not “a bit” of one, a BIG one.

      OK – I admit it: I need my mudflats and my mudpeeps! There, I’ve said it. beth.

  20. poesontherun says:

    The gas bag is going down!

  21. laingirl says:

    I slept late this AM and wasn’t able to get on Mudflats, so went to HuffPo and saw AKM’s story and knew it wasn’t my computer. It was all the traffic you were receiving.

    This poll is great news for both Alaska and the rest of us. The Tea Party people scare me, and I’m getting too old for this.

    Good luck to Scott McAdams and Alaska. May you forever be rid of Joe Miller, Lisa and $arah!

    • 1smartcanerican says:

      Had the same problem. It is so frustrating when one can’t access a favorite website, but always glad to know it has to do with a special topic that grabs everyone’s attention. Way to go AKM!

  22. thatcrowwoman says:

    hahahaha caw Caw CAW CAW!!!!

    and what’s the latest from granny feckin’ fraud about her protege?
    *crickets*
    (clean up in Studio dead-lake Lucille!)

    Great Scott!
    Vote McAdams for sanity in Alaska, and that warm, generous smile with the twinkle in his eyes, also, too!

  23. far from fenway fan says:

    There’s a strong wind blowing here tonight; promises to be a hurricane by Tues!

  24. Molly says:

    Good for you Alaskans!!

  25. tallimat says:

    Woot !

    It can only get better and better. Joes disapproval rating I mean.
    Last nights debate was great.
    When asked if science or creationism should be taught in school, Scott and Lisa said science. Joe said the science of creation-ism should be taught.

    We laughed at joe. His religious agenda is sooo seeping out. And People are catching on to his penchant ti lie.

    McAdams at one point called for a group hug. Really. But if you look at the tension in the room, then hear the “group hug” comment, everyface was smiles and flat out laughing, except Lisa’s.
    It was truely a great popcorn moment.

  26. cochie says:

    Miller supporters are the Religious right wing types, they aren’t going to Scott, they’ll go to Lisa if at all.
    They pretty much ignore the obvious…Miller is dishonest. The hard core stick with thier guy no matter what. The Dems should have had Berkowitz run for Senate, he could win, but instead they have Scott who has zip for experience. Thanks Dems.

    • Lee323 says:

      Keep on grinding that dull ax of yours, cochie. The facts prove otherwise: Miller’s numbers are plummeting; McAdam’s numbers are sky rocketing; and Murkowski’s numbers have barely moved. …..and 13% are still undecided.

      Miller’s an unethical disaster.

      Murkowski had her chance, and chose to put party politics (90% voting record with the Party of NO!) ahead of Alaska, our country, the economy, jobs …. ad nauseam.

      Now, more than ever, is the time for Democrats and moderates to vote aggressively for Alaska and our country! Vote McAdams! A vote for integrity and real experience in the real world.

    • Alaska Pi says:

      LOL!
      Dems get ignored all the time here until something might hit the fan, then somehow it’s all always our fault…
      Mr McAdams has adequate experience for the job, whether you think so or not, and he’s shown himself to be a rapid able learner in the last 2 months of campaigning.
      His personal core is solid and honest…
      So I say-
      You’re welcome!
      About time someone noticed we Dems do pretty darn well for ourselves when we don’t fall for all the Henny-Penny gobbeldygook .
      Go Scott!!!!!!!!!!

    • Bretta says:

      Cochie, I respectfully must disagree.

      A co-worker changed from Miller to McAdams a few days ago. He told me today that several friends of his are now leaning McAdams. A few weeks ago they had thought they would have to write in LM but have made up their minds based on what they have seen and heard lately.

      Go Scott!

      Experience is not the question – if it was, then Miller would fail that question, too.

      Scott McAdams is smart and listens and obviously learns well very quickly.

    • fishingmamma says:

      COCHIE!! Change your name to Eeyore!!!

      Scott can win!!

  27. Dagian says:

    I LIKE my state senators, but I still wish we could have McAdams.

    Best wishes to all his Alaskan supporters. I think that if the supporters get out and have more engaging conversations (as compared to diatribes and lectures [a la Miller/Murkowski]) with their fellow citizens, an awful lot of the citizenry are going to be persuaded to at least read up on the candidate, his ideas and proposals. That can only help the electorate as a whole. Of course, I hope they VOTE for him, too!

  28. calaz says:

    Totally awesome. This has been my hope all along. In speaking to my Grandson who will vote in his first election, he gave me a name I wanted to hear. Scott McAdams. I am a happy granny.

  29. GAmom says:

    This is great news, and I hope the trends will continue as projected. I have never been to Alaska (live in sunny Georgia) but have followed this incredible race thanks to this site. Thank you and best of luck, will stay up Tuesday night to hear the results in your state!

  30. A Fan From Chicago says:

    Does anyone know how many people (what percentage of registered voters) have already voted early? Bet a few of them wish they could have a do-over. Unfortunately that’s one of the problems with early voting. You just never know what the cat is going to drag in in the last days.

    • Bretta says:

      I thought I saw about 6,000 absentee and early voting ballots had been submitted so far – sorry if this is incorrect – I don’t have the chance right now to look for the info.

      I think about 100,000 votes were cast in the primary, just to give a relative value.

  31. B in Co says:

    I woke up to hearing the news about the poll on Morning Joe. Fantastic! Mr. McAdams is the only candidate who doesn’t seem to have a mean, vindictive bone in his body. Given many chances to vilify the others (Lord knows they deserve it,) he takes the high road every time. He would be a voice of reason among all the garbage we are going to have in D.C. after Nov.2.
    For all the Dems. that were going to vote for Lisa M. out of fear, no need. McAdams can win! Please do this, not just for Alaska but for the whole country. We have to keep the Senate.

    • Cammie says:

      True, but have you picked up that inscrutable expression he is able to keep on his face no matter how snarky a comment his opponents throw at him in a debate? I get a cool vibe from that…specifically, that McAdams is a MUCH tougher cookie than people probably realize. I think he will kick ass, with class, in the Senate.

      • Cammie says:

        B, just to clarify, my comment above was in response to your noting that McAdams doesn’t have a mean or vindictive bone in his body. I agree, just saying at the same time, he doesn’t appear to be someone who can be rolled over, either.

  32. Chris says:

    No he needs to beat miller lite.

  33. luckycharms says:

    This is great news! Whatever Dems there are out there that are still planning on voting for Lisa ought to have their heads examined. This poll should be enough to bring them home.

    Lease-A only wants what’s good for Lease-A. It’s all about her own power. Remind you of anyone??

  34. JMichael says:

    His responses to Rachel Maddow’s questions re the marriage issue demonstrated his 10th Amendment support was only a tool to implement a position, not a firmly held belief. He is more likely than any of the other candidates to invite more Federal interference in the private lives of citizens, which is not an Alaskan value.

    • luckycharms says:

      That was Joe Miller she asked about marriage, not Scott McAdams.

    • TX SMR says:

      Not an Alaskan value except when asking the government to give the state more money per capita than any other state so that one does not have to do annoying things like pay a personal state income tax to fund schools, roads, etc.

      Or when asking the government to decide whether or not an abortion should be legal?

      Or when asking the government to give the state billions of dollars for a gas pipeline?

      Or when asking the government to be the single largest employer in the entire state?

      Or when asking the government to provide air traffic controllers and other safety personnel?

      You mean like those Alaskan anti-government values?

      Give me a break already.

  35. Pamy says:

    The only poll result I believe in is the one on November 3. Go Scott! and Go me!!…because I phone banked last night.

  36. frsbdg says:

    I’ll post the link to this video one last time. Miller is toast – don’t throw your vote away on Lisa, folks!

    • Heidi1 says:

      I’ll admit it – I’m addicted to this election. And I live in California! Hubs, I, and friends here have donated over and over to Scott, and it feels like the most worthwhile thing we’ve ever done. Supporting this incredible candidate is actually… an Honor. I’m thrilled to see this recent poll! Question, frsbdg: Is that youtube video actually a current McAdams TV ad? It’s a bit ‘edgy’/direct, moreso than Scott’s previous ads. More power to you, Alaskans – SCOTT McADAMS IS A WINNER!

    • Bigtoe says:

      This is just the thing to bring those dems and moderates back home to a real Alaskan, a real patriot who is in it for the right reasons. Scott McAdams got his donations from real grassroots progressives and independents. Go Scott!!!

  37. AKSandhills says:

    I need time to sit back & truly savor this post but just had to comment that you could not have picked a better graphic. This week has been so stressful with this pending election – so thank you for giving us all something to laugh about.

    • How is a picture of the Hindenburg disaster something to laugh about? Personally I thought it was a terrible graphic to use. You do know the story, don’t you?
      Mark Springer
      Bethel

      • beth says:

        The image of the Hindenburg was inappropriate? Surely you jest.

        Of the 97 on-board (61 crew and 36 passengers) thirty-two people lost their lives (22 crew and 13 passengers) in that disaster [but you already know that, knowing the story, and all…]

        Miller is like the Hindenburg – full of combustible gas. And he has been a disaster just waiting to happen. Well, guess what? WIth the revelations that’ve been coming out about him recently and his actions over the past couple of week, he’s steered himself right into that mooring mast. And his campaign (and he) is exploding and is coming crashing down.

        Besides which, Miller, should he win, would devastate many, many, multitudes of many more people than were killed and/or injured that day because he is *totally* unqualified (ethically, temperamentally, morally, and in all sorts of *other* “lly” ways) to be Senator.

        Sorry, Mark, but the Hindenburg, on *so* many levels, is a *most* appropriate photo to use for the article. beth.

        • Cammie says:

          He wasn’t saying it was an inappropriate graphic for the story, just that it was inappropriate to laugh at it, considering all the people that were incinerated inside it.

        • beth says:

          Correction: There were 97 on-board. Of those, 13 passengers died…and 23 did not; 22 crew died…and 39 did not. (IOW: 62 aboard, survived.) One man on the ground (a Navy man) was also killed, bringing the total deaths from the incident to 35. Most were killed jumping from the ship, not from the explosion or the fire – those who stayed with the burning ship until it reached the ground, survived. b.

          • AKSandhills says:

            Sorry if anyone was offended because I thought AKM’s use of the iconic image of the Hindenburg, as a metaphor for Miller’s campaign was quite humorous. Although this image & the history of the Hindenburg has been invoked many times as a comparison from everything to political campaigns to our recent financial meltdown, I guess that maybe it was too soon?
            Or maybe if you have the proclivity to read too much into things you will probably get to the point where nothing is funny. That said, it is the mere image of the Hindenberg exploding coupled with the headline of the post that is actually funny. One need not ponder about the people who either died or suffered from injuries in the disaster.

  38. ginny says:

    This is fabulous! I’m no Alaskan, but have been watching this race closely, because Miller is so scary. I’ve grown to really like McAdams as a person, and he really does seem to care about Alaskans. His tv ads are so good, a very nice change from the usual political attack ads. They are actually pleasant to watch, make you feel *good* about voting for someone for a change, and I don’t discount the effect those ads themselves have had on people. I wish we had a candidate like Scott in my state, LOL! Looks like we are going to get stuck with a 2nd Republican and the ONLY “good” thing I can say about him is that he isn’t a BS crazy TP candidate, but he is a horrible establishment, soon-to-be former lobbyist, so not much better. :-(
    BUT…if Scott wins he will be a new Democratic voice in the Senate, to help counter my state’s probable new Republican voice. VOTE FOR SCOTT ALASKANS!!!

  39. tigerwine says:

    Well, well, well. Looks like it’s going to be a great day after all. What a way to start the day!

    Thanks, AKM.

    • carolo says:

      OMG! I am so happy this morning to see Miller is biting the dust. He is a looney tune and Alaskans have see it.

    • geom says:

      Because she will have a lot of forfeited and challenged votes, Lisa will need to be ahead by a much bigger margin if she actually has a chance at winning, Who knows what that margin should be, but it doesn’t look like she has it.

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  1. […] “Breaking: New Alaska Senate Poll Shows McAdams Surging Past Embattled Joe Miller” and r… (themudflats.net) […]

  2. […] new Hays Research poll in Alaska shows Scott McAdams (D) surging ahead of Joe Miller (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 29% to […]

  3. […] new Hays Research survey finds Democrat "Scott McAdams surging ahead of Joe Miller with 29%, Joe Miller with 23%, and […]



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