Peace in the Middle East ?

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[Sirenoftitan]

America is putting the final touches to a hugely ambitious peace plan for the Middle East, aimed at ending more than 60 years of conflict between Israel and the Arabs, according to Jordan’s King Abdullah, who is helping to bring the parties together.

The Obama Administration is pushing for a comprehensive peace agreement that would include settling Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians and its territorial disputes with Syria and Lebanon, King Abdullah II told The Times. Failure to reach agreement at this critical juncture would draw the world into a new Middle East war next year. “If we delay our peace negotiations, then there is going to be another conflict between Arabs or Muslims and Israel in the next 12-18 months,” the King said.

King Abdullah of Jordan's ultimatum: peace now or it’s war next year The Times

[pacos_gal]

Well, it's certainly a worthy goal.  However, I see Israel itself as a major stumbling block to achieving this.  Binyamin Netanyahu is a far right leader for Israel and Lieberman is even further right.  Netanyahu has stated he won't give up Golem Heights.  (that will be a problem with Syria negotiations) There have been all types of various manuverings between Israel and the U.S. in recent weeks, with Netanyahu trying to position Obama into having to support Israel against Iran.  Israel is trying to tie any settlement with Palestine to Iran nuclear technology. 

There was an interesting play that happened prior to the AIPAC meeting last week.  Netanyahu was scheduled to attend that meeting and wanted to meet with Obama on his trip here.  The Obama government told Netanyahu that Obama wouldn't have time to meet with him.  Netanyahu canceled his planned trip to attend AIPAC and addressed the conference by video.  However, Israel President Shimon Peres attended AIPAC and Obama did sit down and talk with him.  The difference is that Netanyahu is trying to push Obama into the position he wants Obama to go, (confrontational) on Iran, while Peres, has tentatively signaled that he supports some overtures that Obama is making to Iran. 

There are alot of key players to pay attention to on the U.S. side of things, Hillary Clinton, George Mitchell, Dennis Ross just to mention a few.  Some plays have already been made.  Charles Freeman's potential adviser position didn't happen, because Israel didn't like a soft position on Iran and Saudi Arabia.  Enter Dennis Ross, with major links to Israel taking the Iran position into his entire Middle East Advisory position.
I think antiwar lost on that one.  If Israel can make George Mitchell's position weakened or even nonrevelant in regards to Palestine and Israel peace, then look for that to happen too.  Watch King Abdullah for what the Saudi/Egypt/Syria position will be.  Can the U.S. with help from these countries, push through a peace plan that would bring the right side of Israel and Hamas in Palestine and maybe even Iran into a peace treaty even while kicking and screaming?

Nothing substatinal is expected to happen in regards to Iran until after their presidential elections and while it looks like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will probably win again.  I don't think Obama wants to make any kind of move that might influence the election, or make Ahmadinejad's position stronger.  That is one guy who takes the power of rhetoric to new levels. 

As I previously said there  have been a lot of background manuverings in Washington and Israel involving various players, all leading up to what is going to happen with U.S. middle eastern policy.

 

[Sirenoftitan]

The difference is that Netanyahu is trying to push Obama into the position he wants Obama to go, (confrontational) on Iran, while Peres, has tentatively signaled that he supports some overtures that Obama is making to Iran. 

As I previously said there  have been a lot of background manuverings in Washington and Israel involving various players, all leading up to what is going to happen with U.S. middle eastern policy.

Perhaps Netanyahu has to 'cross the road' ?

<snip>
If Netanyahu says he will act to stop construction in the Jewish settlements and illegal outposts in the West Bank, but does nothing, he will be confronting the Obama administration. Actions speak louder than words. If Netanyahu fails to fulfill his promises, he will be in big trouble.

There are limits to talking. When we suddenly insist that the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state, this looks like an excuse to delay talks. After all, the UN's partition plan recognized a Jewish state and an Arab state. It would make more sense for the other side to demand that we recognize the Palestinian identity of their future state. But the government won't even officially recognize the need for a two-state solution. What is there to talk about if they don't plan on dividing the Land of Israel?

Why did Bibi cross the road? by Yoel Marcus,  Harretz

[Sirenoftitan]

The forthcoming meeting in Washington between Netanyahu and Obama has produced the following editorials/leader comment in today's British press

Obama and Netanyahu: Pressing the right buttons The Guardian

Binyamin Netanyahu's delicate balancing act with Barack Obama by James Hider, The Times

[pacos_gal]

Interesting articles Sirenoftitan.  Thanks for the links.  It certainly goes to the show the problems that are before anyone actually wanting to achieve mideast peace.  I have to be honest and say that I sometimes don't think that peace is what some of these countries want.  It just isn't in what they consider to be their best national interest.  I think the Guardian article rather enforced that thought for me. 

It's a fine line to walk between wanting to support Israel and Palestine and being thoroughly frustrated with both of them. 

[Forty Watt]

Israel defies US call on settlements:

This is not looking good.

A disagreement between the US and the Israeli government deepened yesterday when President Barack Obama stressed the US's call for a freeze on all Israeli settlements in occupied territory, even as Israel brushed away earlier such demands by Washington.

How to proceed?

One veteran US negotiator argues the credibility of the new administration is at stake if the US makes demands Israel refuses to meet.

"My advice for the president is don't go down this road unless you are prepared to be a real son of a bitch," said Aaron David Miller, a former state department official now at the Woodrow Wilson centre in Washington.

I'm not sure what Mr. Miller has in mind.  Any thoughts?

[pacos_gal]

Well, it can mean several things I think, all of which are a bit tricky to actually implement.  We could say, we aren't going to put any kind of time frame to the Iran issue.  (Obama had said he wanted it settled by the end of the year after meeting with Netanyahu).  We could have relations with Iran that are not dependent upon their nuclear capabilities. 
We could threaten to withhold military aide.  That would be problematic in that every Senator/Representative that gets money from Israel interests probably wouldn't support that. 
We could offer more aide to Palestine and Gaza, which would tick off Israel. 
The main thing is that anything that is said has to actually be meant and carried out.  Empty words mean nothing.
I'm not sure what else we could do.  Aide to Syria maybe. 
I don't actually see Obama wanting to go down any of these roads.  So I think for the most part, we'll continue to use strong language.   Natanyahu will continue to ignore us and it will be a stalemate with nothing happening.  If anything happens I think it will be on Natanyahu's side and I don't know what he is prepared to do. 

[Sirenoftitan]

President Obama gave an interview to the Beeb yesterday (hope the video in the link works  )

US President Barack Obama has told the BBC he believes his country can help to get serious Middle East peace negotiations back on track.
His comments, in his first interview with a UK broadcaster, come on the eve of a trip to the Middle East and Europe
On Iran, he said he hoped to see progress by the end of the year, through "tough, direct diplomacy".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8078217.stm

[Jamie]

Personally, I blame GWB and cronies for letting things slide after Bill Clinton got so close and had made such progress, earning the respect of all sides. He and friends were so concentrated on Iraq, that they refused to engage and keep the process alive and going. 8 years is a long time and so much has happened. Too much time has been lost.

Hopefully, Hillary Clinton can pick up where her husband left off and hopefully the respect that was felt for him has carried over to her. This is a situation that has to be acted on quickly.

[Forty Watt]

President Obama gave an interview to the Beeb yesterday (hope the video in the link works  )

I was watching this on the tele while I read you post.  Once again, I am reminded that the President always has a long-range plan and patience and, however calm he appears, he's not a push-over. This interview has made me a bit more hopeful.

[Sirenoftitan]

The Israeli government of Benjmain Netanyahu is seeking to deflect Washington's demand for a total settlement freeze by complaining that it ignores secret agreements between his predecessors and the Bush administration that construction in existing Jewish settlements could continue.

The rift between Mr Netanyahu's government and the US appeared to deepen yesterday, with a clear declaration by President Barack Obama that a freeze – including on "natural growth" of West Bank settlements – was among Israeli "obligations".

Netanyahu cites secret deal with Bush to justify more settlements by Donald Macintyre, The Independent

[pacos_gal]

Mr. Netanyahu needs to realize that there is a new president, new administration and unless this is an official document, treaty, etc, it has no bearing on this administration and that the old policies of Bush are no longer the policies of the United States. 
Does Netanyahu feel bound by any secret understandings made by his previous administration? I seriously doubt that unless of course he were to feel it is in his best interest to do so, everything else is just...old news.

[Sirenoftitan]

The Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, last night said for the first time he would accept an independent Palestinian state, but only on condition it was demilitarised and that the Palestinians recognised Israel as the state of the Jewish people.

In a key policy speech intended to address growing US pressure for a move towards peace in the Middle East, Netanyahu defended Israel's position and said he wanted to make peace, but despite his mention of a Palestinian state he offered few substantial concessions.

Netanyahu backs an independent Palestinian state for first time by Rory McCarthy, The Guardian

[Aeroentropy]

A timely cartoon arrived in my in-box this am, from the New Yorker Magazine.

 Dog looking up at cat in tree says, "OK, here's the deal - I'll stop chasing you if you agree to become a dog."

Odd idea of compromise.

[Sirenoftitan]

Israel's defence ministry has proposed legalising 60 existing homes at a Jewish settlement in the occupied West Bank, and building another 240 homes at the site, despite US calls for a halt to settlement growth.

Construction at the outpost, known as Water Reservoir Hill, near the Talmon settlement, north of Ramallah, would "greatly damage" the freedom of movement of Palestinian farmers in the area, according to Bimkom, an Israeli planning rights group.

It said the construction plan was put forward for public inspection shortly after the Israeli government was formed this spring and was first approved by Ehud Barak, the defence minister. It was now awaiting final approval.

Israel defies US with plan for 240 new homes on Palestinian land by Rory McCarthy, The Guardian

[Sirenoftitan]

Barack Obama has dispatched a clutch of senior American officials to Jerusalem to press his demand for an end to Jewish settlement construction and move along a diplomatic process aimed at imposing a blueprint for peace if negotiations fail.

Obama's Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, is reportedly discussing a deal with the Israeli leadership that would allow the completion of several thousand homes for Jewish settlers already under construction but impose a total halt to building once they are complete. Such an agreement would amount to a concession by Obama, who laid down an immediate and complete freeze on construction as a marker of a more interventionist policy at a testy meeting with the Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, in Washington in May.

Obama administration officials in Israel to demand end to settlement building by Chris McGreal iand Ian Black, The Guardian

[Sirenoftitan]

Israel's government has stopped issuing settler housing tenders in the West Bank, hoping to reach common ground with the US, a senior minister says.  The US administration has been putting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under pressure to freeze all settlement work, which has strained normally close ties.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8208315.stm

[Sirenoftitan]

Barack Obama is close to brokering an Israeli-Palestinian deal that will allow him to announce a resumption of the long-stalled Middle East peace talks before the end of next month, according to US, Israeli, Palestinian and European officials.

Key to bringing Israel on board is a promise by the US to adopt a much tougher line with Iran over its alleged nuclear weapons programme. The US, along with Britain and France, is planning to push the United Nations security council to expand sanctions to include Iran's oil and gas industry, a move that could cripple its economy.

Barack Obama on brink of deal for Middle East peace talks by Ewen MacAskill and Julian Borger, The Guardian

[Sirenoftitan]

Israeli and Palestinian officials today predicted a resumption of peace talks would take place within weeks after differences appeared to narrow over Jewish settlements on the West Bank.

A four-hour meeting today in London between the Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the US special envoy George Mitchell, which was largely devoted to the issue of settlements, made "good progress" according to a joint statement issued later.

Israeli and Palestinian officials predict peace talks may resume within weeks by Julian Borger, The Guardian

[Sirenoftitan]

Israeli plans to authorise the construction of hundreds of houses in the occupied West Bank sparked furious protests from American and Palestinian officials yesterday.

In a nod to US requests to suspend all building work at Jewish settlements, Binyamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister, is offering a freeze on construction at a later date — a peace gambit that did little to mollify those involved in the negotiations leading to a new Middle East peace process.

US fury as Israel defies settlement freeze call by Sheera Frenkel, The Times