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June 13, 2021

Headlines:

Nate Silver Calls It For Walker-Mallott

…in a squeaker. The 538 electoral modeling math nerd king was the undisputed champion of the 2012 cycle, correctly predicting 49 of 50 states (and only missing Indiana by 0.1%)

While much national punditry is focused on the battle for the US Senate, last night Silver released his model for the 2014 gubernatorial cycle. Projecting Walker-Mallott ahead by a narrow 0.8 percent, Silver gives the Unity Ticket a 56% chance of winning the race.

For Mudflatters around the Lower 48, Silver’s model is a mixed bag. Democrats are projected to flip the governorships of Maine, Florida, Kansas and Pennsylvania into their column. Republicans, meanwhile, are predicted to keep the keys to the governor’s mansion in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Massachusetts, Martha Coakley is a campaigner of—how to put this politely—”dubious ability,” whose loss to Scott Brown in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy essentially cost Democrats the Public Option in health care reform. Coakley appears once again poised to lose a statewide race in Massachusetts to a Republican.

Full 538 forecast here.

538governor

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3 Responses to “Nate Silver Calls It For Walker-Mallott”
  1. steve conn says:

    Both sides generally agreed that Senator Mark Begich, Democrat of Alaska, is in some danger, but polling is unpredictable enough in the sprawling state that neither party was supremely confident about the outcome.From today’s NYT- don’t count your chickens before they hatch

  2. Zyxomma says:

    Vote, vote, vote, vote, vote. My home state of NY is firmly in the blue, but I’m voting Green — Howie Hawkins — along with many other People’s Climate Marchers. We don’t want fracking to ruin our beautiful water, air, or soil. Alaska, I certainly hope Nate Silver’s prediction is accurate. Vote!

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